1. I have seen a documentary that a people can earn up to USD17k per month for a million hit they get.
2. Obviously someone is using the same technique to generate his income and yet not paying the sue he losts and not being responsible for the chaos he makes. He didn't even believe in open court, facts or the consequences he had made.
3. In fact, he is too coward to face all the real people he accused.
4. For this kind of blogger, anything else is not important except for the daily hits he gets. All he wants is a story. A story that he can gain from.
5. He is willing to accuse everybody from BN or PR without proof and getting the hits for his sensations. He is willing to make stories in order to maintain chaos and gain something out of it.
6. He provokes extremist in BN and PR so that he will be in the headlines and both parties are in chaos.
7. He knew, PR will back him up if BN uses ISA, and BN will back him up if he exposes PR's skeleton.
8. This signifies how irresponsible he is and how the fame is what he need.
9. Irresponsible people shall not be entertained. In fact, they shall be avoided at any cost as the Joker in the movie Batman.
10. Joker only wants chaos in order for him to prove that everyone is as evil as him. Raja Petra illustrates this character.
11. If he is a true journalist that hates BN so much, he can write at Harakah's or even Suara Keadilan, but he will not do so since he do not want to attack BN alone. He wants to make hits whenever any story surfaces.
12. Blocking Malaysia Today will block Raja Petra's income. This is what matters to him apart from the content of his writings. He knew he had lost his dignity and he care less about laws and orders.
13. Unfortunately, the power to do this is in BN's hand and they're to be blamed for it. I believe, this blocking will be the first step before arresting him under ISA, if he insisted.
14. At that time, he may already be a billionaire and retire from writings if BN had not taken this first step.
15. Hopefully Malaysia will be in peace when Raja Petra losts his tools and suara rakyat is now in parliament. No more talking useless politics and dirty accusations without proof.
16. Parliament is the place where oppositions can make a difference and PR had completed their team for check and balance.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Melayu dari kacamata TDM : Interview pada 2002
Dipetik dan diadaptasi dari jebatmustdie:
Agak panjang, tapi it's worth to read between the lines
Apa yang patut orang melayu buat?
1 - Yakini diri, kuatkan azam, bersedia untuk susah
2 - Tingkatkan penguasaan bahasa inggeris, kejar ilmu
3 - Tingkatkan daya saing
Lagi senang untuk bercakap dari buat, tapi inilah resipi untuk mengubah budaya melayu!
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MINGGUAN: Datuk Seri telah menjadi Presiden UMNO selama 21 tahun, satu tempoh paling lama dibandingkan dengan presiden-presiden UMNO yang lain. Bagaimana Datuk Seri melihat orang Melayu selama 21 tahun Datuk Seri menjadi Presiden, dari mula-mula hingga sekarang.
DR. MAHATHIR: Ada juga kemajuan di kalangan orang Melayu. Tapi ada juga unsur-unsur negatif yang telah muncul dalam UMNO sendiri dan dalam masyarakat Melayu. Hakikatnya ialah kita tidak dapat mencapai matlamat kita iaitu Dasar Ekonomi Baru (DEB). Walaupun ada beberapa orang Melayu yang nampak berjaya baik dalam bidang perniagaan atau profesional, tetapi umumnya tidak ada banyak perubahan - baik dari segi sikap dan nilai-nilai yang dipegang oleh orang Melayu.
Apakah sikap dan unsur-unsur negatif di kalangan orang Melayu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Umpamanya, ramai yang suka mencari jalan mudah untuk menjayakan sesuatu, walaupun jalan yang mudah itu akan membawa akibat buruk dalam jangka panjang. Tidak ada yang serius untuk berusaha. Kita dapati di kalangan penuntut Melayu, walaupun jumlahnya ramai kerana jumlah orang Melayu juga telah meningkat, tetapi keinginan untuk mengejar ilmu agak berkurangan, terutama di kalangan penuntut lelaki.
Dalam bidang perniagaan ada yang betul-betul berusaha dan mencapai kejayaan tetapi lebih ramai yang hanya nampak peluang daripada lesen ataupun kontrak yang diberi oleh kerajaan untuk dijual kepada orang lain.
Datuk Seri menyebut tentang kegagalan mencapai matlamat DEB. Banyak mana yang dapat dicapai?
DR. MAHATHIR: Dulu kita capai sampai 20 peratus tetapi sekarang berkurangan hingga kepada 19 peratus. Daripada 19 peratus itu, 17 peratus adalah yang dimiliki oleh institusi-institusi bumiputera yang diurus oleh kerajaan, bumiputera sendiri cuma memiliki dua peratus. Bukan kerana kita tidak beri, kalau hendak dikira jumlah yang kita beri kepada bumiputera lebih daripada 30 peratus. Tetapi hampir semuanya dijual. Sebab itu kita tidak dapat mencapai matlamat. Sebab orang kita hendak cepat dapat duit. Kalau jual boleh dapat duit cepat. Kalau simpan, tidak merasa.
Apa yang tidak kena dengan orang Melayu? Kenapa mereka jadi begitu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tidak tahu apa nak kata. Kita sudah kata berkali-kali, jangan buat perkara semacam itu, tetapi ada yang datang jumpa saya, minta lesen dan kontrak. Mereka kata, “Saya susah, bagilah pada saya peluang.” Tapi dia beri juga kepada orang lain.
Matlamat DEB gagal dicapai walaupun sesudah 30 tahun. Ertinya, dasar diskriminasi positif pun gagal mengubah orang Melayu. Jadi, apa yang perlu dibuat?
DR. MAHATHIR: Itu orang Melayu patut tanya pada diri mereka sendiri, apa yang patut mereka buat. Saya sudah tunjuk apa yang patut mereka buat, tapi mereka masih juga hendakkan tongkat, hendak subsidi, hendak diberi keistimewaan.
Datuk Seri, kalau kita tarik balik subsidi dan hak istimewa itu, apakah orang Melayu akan mengubah sikap mereka?
DR. MAHATHIR: Itu kita sudah kata, umpamanya kita hendak benarkan 10 peratus bukan Melayu ke dalam Maktab Rendah Sains Mara (MRSM) dan program matrikulasi, itu pun orang kita tak sanggup. Kita hendak dikelilingi dengan satu kubu supaya orang lain tidak boleh masuk. Esok, kalau kita kena keluar dari kubu kita, kita tak boleh berperang dengan orang.
Apakah Datuk Seri rasa orang Melayu sudah bersedia untuk menghadapi persaingan tanpa perlindungan kerajaan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Belum bersedia. Sebab itu kalau kita masukkan 10 peratus pun mereka bersungut. Kita hendak kuota sana, kuota sini, kita juga hendak subsidi itu, subsidi ini.
Kita anggap, diberi layanan istimewa oleh kerajaan sebagai satu perkara yang mulia. Sebenarnya tidak mulia. Umpamanya, kalau di dalam negara, kita perlu diberi perlindungan sepanjang masa, keadaan kita samalah seperti orang Red Indian yang terpaksa dilindungi kerana begitu lemah dan ini akan menjadikan kita bertambah lemah.
Mengapa orang Melayu masih belum bersedia menghadapi perubahan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya nampak satu daripada masalahnya ialah politik. Ada orang apabila kita hendak buat perkara yang betul, maka mereka akan ancam melalui politik supaya jangan menyokong kerajaan.
Dalam politik demokrasi ini, begitulah. Bila kita hendak buat perkara yang betul, yang baik dan yang sakit sikit, ada orang berkata, ini sebahagian daripada isu politik.
Umpamanya sudah lama saya suruh orang kita belajar bahasa Inggeris, bukan (tujuan) hendak ganti bahasa Melayu, cuma hendak belajar bahasa Inggeris. Tetapi hal ini dijadikan isu yang cukup besar hingga kita tidak dapat laksanakan.
Hari ini, kita baru sedar bahawa bahasa Inggeris itu penting. Demikian juga dengan ilmu-ilmu lain yang saya sudah desak lama, lebih kurang 30 tahun dulu supaya belajar ilmu-ilmu lain itu, tetapi ada yang kata itu sekular, politik. Yang dahsyat sekali Pas. Pas tunggu saja bila kita buat sesuatu, ia jadikan isu supaya perkara yang baik ini tidak tercapai.
Siapa yang menentangnya?
DR. MAHATHIR: Sesetengah nasionalis bahasa Melayu. Orang ini ingat kalau kamu boleh bercakap Melayu dengan baik, sudah cukup, tidak tahu bahasa lain tidak mengapa. Ada juga segelintir dalam UMNO begitu. Jadi dia cari jalan mudah, maka tak perlulah dia belajar lebih.
Kena belajar Inggeris susah, lebih senang belajar dalam bahasa Melayu. Tapi, belajar dalam bahasa Melayu pun kita lihat budak-budak Cina boleh dapat kelulusan yang lebih baik. Dia berpidato dalam bahasa Melayu lebih baik daripada budak Melayu.
Tapi dalam hal ini Datuk Seri, bantahan dan rasa tidak senang nampaknya juga datang daripada kalangan UMNO sendiri.
DR. MAHATHIR: Yalah, dalam UMNO juga ada yang semacam itu, tapi mereka tidak jadikan itu sebagai isu untuk menghentam kerajaan, ataupun cuba menghakiskan sokongan kepada kerajaan. Mereka ini kritik kerana tidak faham tujuan sebenar kita membuat sesuatu.
Tentang mentaliti subsidi dan tongkat. Terdapat dua pandangan, satu pandangan mengatakan orang Melayu tidak berubah, tidak mahu kerja kuat kerana adanya tongkat itu. Jadi kalau kita hendak ubah orang Melayu, kita kena buang tongkat itu. Tetapi bila kita hendak membuangnya, mereka kata mereka tidak boleh bersaing tanpa tongkat. Bagaimana kita hendak pecahkan mentaliti ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Sebenarnya orang Melayu mampu buat. Kita telah buktikan apabila orang Melayu sanggup buat sesuatu, dia dapat menguasai perkara itu sama ada dari segi menuntut ilmu atau membuat kerja dengan cekap dan sebagainya. Semuanya boleh, tetapi keinginan untuk berusaha bersungguh-sungguh amat kurang sekali.
Kenapa?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tak tahu. Kita cuba tunjuk secara teladan. Kadang-kadang saya sudah tunjuk kita kerja kuat, bila balik dari luar negara, saya terus pergi pejabat - hendak tunjuk kerja kuat. Tetapi ada orang kata, Doktor bolehlah… itulah jawabnya.
Semua orang kagum melihat Datuk Seri bila balik pagi ini (Jumaat) boleh terus pergi kerja, tetapi mereka tidak ikut juga.
DR. MAHATHIR: Apa lagi… hendak tunjuk teladan sudah tunjuk, nak tunjuk ajar sudah ajar, marah sudah, menangis sudah, baca doa pun sudah. Semua saya dah buat.
Jadi apa yang silap dengan orang kita, Datuk Seri?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya anggap itu sudah menjadi satu budaya bagi kita. Kalau kita lihat ke tapak projek, kita harus tanya pada diri kita, kenapa tidak ada seorang pun Melayu yang bekerja dalam projek pembinaan. Apakah orang Melayu berbeza dengan orang Jawa, orang Sumatera yang bekerja kuat di situ. Mereka kerja sampai malam. Takkan kerana kulit kita coklat seperti ini, maka kita tak boleh buat kerja.
Itu budaya kita. Kita tak tahu susah, hendak senang selalu. Kalau naik tinggi sedikit, sudah gayat. Kerja lama sikit - letih, lenguh sampai tak boleh tidur. Saya selalu pergi melawat ke tempat tapak projek, saya lihat ada orang Indonesia, orang Cina, orang India, tapi orang Melayu tidak ada. Kalau kita lihat di situ kita tidak tahu ini Malaysia, negara orang Melayu. Kita ingat ini negara asing.
Datuk Seri, adakah ini kerana orang Melayu masih dengan mentaliti lama, di mana cukup makan dan cukup pakai sudah memadai?
DR. MAHATHIR: Baiklah… kalau cukup makan, cukup pakai, jadi tak payahlah bising-bising lagi. Apa nak politik lagi. Tapi kita bising. Kita hendak itu dan ini.
Apakah Datuk Seri berpuas hati dengan kedudukan orang Melayu setakat ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tidak. Cuba kita `cabut’ orang Cina, apa akan jadi. Katalah kita ambil Kuala lumpur, semua yang milik Cina kita keluarkan termasuk rumah dan bangunan mereka, apa yang tinggal… Kampung Baru… itu saja.
Selepas 44 tahun kita merdeka kita cuma ada tempat di Kampung Baru saja. Yang ada bangunan tinggi-tinggi pun milik agensi kerajaan. Cuba fikirkan tentang itu.
Datuk Seri, cubalah kita buat perubahan drastik, kita cabut hak istimewa Melayu.
DR. MAHATHIR: Mereka akan menjerit. Mereka tidak dapat hak istimewa. Mereka anggap hak istimewa ini satu kemuliaan. Sebenarnya hak istimewa bukan sesuatu yang mulia. Kalau kita kena selalu pakai tongkat, bermakna kita daif. Antara orang yang kena pakai tongkat dengan orang berjalan tegak, yang mana kamu pandang tinggi? Orang yang pakai tongkat atau orang jalan tegak?
Tapi itu akan memerlukan satu pembaharuan minda.
DR. MAHATHIR: Itulah yang akan terjadi, kita akan adakan seminar, bengkel dan macam-macam. Semua bercakap, para intelek akan bercakap sepanjang masa. Mereka berdebat dan mengeluarkan idea yang menakjubkan, tetapi di bawah ia tidak ada apa-apa makna.
Bukan susah hendak kerja. Hendak kerja ada dan kita boleh beri, tetapi kita rela biar orang lain buat kerja kita.
Kita hendak dapat duit subsidi. Duit subsidi hasil daripada kerja orang lain. Duit itu bukan datang daripada kita. Kalau hendak tahu, lihat cukai pendapatan, banyak mana orang Melayu bayar, banyak mana orang lain bayar. Bermakna duit yang dapat kepada kerajaan yang kita keluarkan sebagai subsidi itu datang daripada orang lain. Sampai bila kita hendak bergantung kepada orang lain?
Hanya Datuk Seri yang boleh bercakap kepada orang Melayu secara berterus terang dalam soal ini. Tidakkah Datuk Seri mahu mengejutkan mereka sekali lagi untuk menyedarkan mereka?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya sudah buat macam-macam, saya sudah pujuk, merayu, berdoa. Macam-macam saya sudah buat.
Ternyata orang Melayu masih menghadapi masalah besar. Boleh Datuk Seri sebutkan tiga saja masalah orang Melayu yang Datuk Seri anggap paling besar?
DR. MAHATHIR: Yang pertama, tidak sanggup untuk bekerja keras, tidak sanggup belajar bersungguh-sungguh. Tidak sanggup membuat sesuatu dengan bersungguh-sungguh.
Yang kedua, bila ada saja sesuatu perkara atau isu berlaku, kita sudah lupa tentang isu sebelum itu. Bila kita asyik tumpu pada isu itu maka kita berkelahi sesama sendiri. Ini balik kepada Melayu mudah lupa.
Yang ketiganya, apabila kita dapat sesuatu, kita tidak begitu menghargainya. Umpamanya kita dapat banyak bantuan subsidi, kalau diguna dengan baik kita akan dapat banyak untung, tetapi kita tidak gunakannya dengan baik.
Menjelang perhimpunan UMNO, orang Melayu sedang berdebat tentang soal penghapusan kuota universiti serta program matrikulasi dan MRSM dibuka kepada bukan Melayu. Ini satu isu yang betul-betul menyentuh hak istimewa Melayu. Kenapa Datuk Seri memilih waktu ini untuk melakukan perubahan ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tidak memilih masa. Saya lihat keadaan. Kalau keadaan memerlukan kita membuat tindakan, kita bertindak. Kita kata, kita perlu melakukan strategi, kalau kita buat begini, maka politik akan jadi begini. Kalau kita asyik fikir itu saja, bermakna kita tidak buat apa-apalah.
Perkara yang baik yang hendak kita buat, tidak ada yang popular. Kalau hendak jadi popular, apa saja orang minta, kita berilah. Kalau dia kata beri kuota 100 peratus kepadanya, kita beri. Kita boleh popular. Tetapi soalnya, baik atau tidak?
Perubahan ini (pembukaan MRSM dan Program Matrikulasi kepada bukan Melayu) adalah satu perubahan yang cukup besar, sebenarnya.
DR. MAHATHIR: Ini tidak besar, sedikit sangat.
Setidak-tidaknya itulah tanggapan di bawah sekarang. Sehingga bila keluar berita tentang perkara ini, pemimpin UMNO sendiri tidak dapat memberi jawapan.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kita sudah beri jawapan. Kita sudah terangkan kenapa kita buat. Di Malaysia terdapat 54 peratus Melayu, 26 peratus Cina, 10 peratus India, enam peratus bumiputera Sabah dan Sarawak (empat peratus lain-lain), itu pecahan masyarakat kita. Tetapi kita hendak latih orang Melayu dalam keadaan terasing daripada semua ini.
Esok bila kita keluar, kita hendak masuk masyarakat itu kita tidak tahu dan tidak mampu. Kerana kita tak pernah lihat orang. Jadi kalau kita sukar hendak buat demikian - orang Melayu bila keluar dari institusi pelajaran maka dia akan terkapar-kapar, hendak cakap dengan orang pun tidak tahu. Kadang-kadang bila bercakap dengan orang lain tidak tahu bahasa pun, jadi akhirnya kita dapati penuntut yang lulus dari universiti - dapat ijazah tapi tidak dapat kerja.
Sekarang orang bertanya tentang mohon kerja, ditanya lulus dari mana. Mereka jawab lulus universiti di Malaysia. Ada yang kata, Melayu yang lulus di luar negara mungkin mendapat lebih peluang kerja daripada Melayu yang lulus dari universiti dalam negara. Kenapa? Kerana universiti dalam Malaysia ini, kaum-kaum sudah tidak bercampur gaul lagi.
Dalam universiti mereka tidak campur sama sekali, hendak bagi senang tidak bercampur ialah kita masukkan sikit soal agama. Kita hendak tidur dalam satu bilik asrama, tak boleh (campur kaum lain) sebab kita nak sembahyang, kita takut kotor. Kita cari jalan supaya kita diasingkan.
Semasa saya belajar di universiti, saya bercampur dengan Cina dan India. Saya masih Melayu dan pegangan Islam saya masih kuat.
Datuk Seri menggambarkan ini penyakit orang Melayu sekarang. Apakah dengan langkah drastik yang dibuat oleh kerajaan sekarang kita akan mengubah sikap orang Melayu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tidak buat benda yang drastik, baru 10 peratus. Sedangkan dalam masyarakat kita 45 peratus terdiri daripada orang bukan Melayu. Kalau hendak ikut peratusan sepatutnya 45 peratus. Tapi kita cuma masukkan 10 peratus dan kita sudah berasa takut.
Sekarang timbul kebimbangan orang Melayu. Permulaannya 10 peratus Datuk Seri, tapi apa akan berlaku selepas ini? Keretakan sudah berlaku dan itu yang membimbangkan Melayu. Apa jawapan Datuk Seri kepada kebimbangan ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tak ada jawapan. Pada pendapat saya, kalau kita mampu bersaing dengan 10 peratus, kita akan mampu bersaing dengan 20 peratus dan 30 peratus. Tapi kalau kita kata dengan 10 peratus pun kita tidak berani, maka kita tak boleh bersaing sampai bila-bila.
Datuk Seri percaya orang Melayu sudah bersedia untuk bersaing tanpa perlindungan kerajaan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau mereka tidak dicuba, sampai bila-bila pun kita tidak akan tahu.
Datuk Seri, apa akan jadi jika perubahan ini tidak berjalan dengan baik? Pada tahun ini semuanya nampak baik. Tetapi dalam pengajian-pengajian kritikal seperti perubatan, pelajar bumiputera masih tidak dapat memenuhi kuota. Bagaimana hendak tangani hal ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau kita tidak biasa susah, kita tidak kuat kerja. Kita senang, hendak masuk universiti ada tempat, semua kita ada. Yang hak orang lain pun kita hendak lagi, tapi dia tidak boleh masuk, bukan sebab sudah penuh.
Inilah masalah orang Melayu - tidak pernah susah, dapat dengan senang. Kalau susah sikit, dia menjerit. Bukan susah banyak, susah sikit saja. Tidak ada yang radikal, hanya 10 peratus.
Pada fikiran Datuk Seri, dengan perubahan ini sikap Melayu boleh diubah?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya harap begitulah, saya tidak tahu macam mana lagi. Saya mungkin salah.
Tentang pengajaran mata pelajaran Sains dan Matematik dalam bahasa Inggeris. Apakah ia akan diteruskan dan tidak mungkin berpatah ke belakang semula?
DR. MAHATHIR: Sudah tentu, kalau kita semua tidak mahu, apa saya nak buat. Saya tak ada kuasa.
Tentu Datuk Seri sedar bahawa orang Melayu perlu dibuat keputusan untuk mereka dan dipimpin mereka.
DR. MAHATHIR: Jika saya buat keputusan untuk mereka dan memimpin mereka, sepatutnya sekarang saya sudah berjaya. Saya sudah buat keputusan, tetapi tidak jadi juga. Kita kata orang Melayu tidak ada peluang hendak berniaga, saya putuskan kita beri peluang kepada mereka. Kita ada lebih 30 dana untuk tolong orang Melayu. Tapi kalau dapat duit pun, dia tidak berniaga betul-betul.
Datuk Seri, kalau pengajaran bahasa Inggeris dalam dua subjek itu untuk Tahun Satu dimulakan tahun depan, ia akan mengambil 11 tahun untuk melihat hasilnya. Apakah kita ada masa 11 tahun?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tidak, kita mahu mulakan semua sekali secara serentak. Itu kalau saya. Saya ada cara saya. Kita akan adakan kursus seperti dua tiga mata pelajaran digabungkan untuk diajar secara serentak di Tahun Lima atau apa saja cara dia belajar untuk Tahun Lima dengan mencantumkan pelajaran (dua subjek itu) dari Tahun Satu, Dua, Tiga dan Empat secara serentak. Kita boleh buat, bukan mustahil sangat tetapi kita perlu kerja kuat, kita kena belajar.
Jadi semua pengajaran Sains dan Matematik dalam bahasa Inggeris akan dilakukan secara serentak mulai tahun depan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Semua sekali. Saya boleh. Saya tahu bagaimana hendak melaksanakannya.
Tetapi Datuk Seri, ini suatu tindakan untuk kembali kepada aliran Inggeris sebenarnya.
DR. MAHATHIR: Tidak, tidak perlu sama sekali.
Apakah salah kalau kita wujudkan semula aliran Inggeris?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau begitu, mati langsung bahasa Melayu. Bahasa Melayu kita guna. Kita kena hidupkan bahasa Melayu. Identiti kita terikat kepada bahasa kita.
Selain mengajar Sains dan Matematik dalam bahasa Inggeris, kenapa tidak perkenalkan semula aliran Inggeris sebagai satu pilihan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tak boleh. Kalau kita beri Inggeris sebagai satu pilihan bermakna orang Melayu tidak belajar bahasa Inggeris. Nilai ekonominya akan jatuh. Orang ini akan tinggi nilai ekonominya dan orang ini tidak ada nilai, terutama dalam dunia sekarang yang mana orang Cina, Jepun, Perancis dan Jerman pun belajar bahasa Inggeris.
Kenyataannya, bahasa Inggeris menjadi lingua franca dan kita pula tidak mahu belajar. Kita tidak mahu belajar sebab kita orang Melayu.
Datuk Seri, terdapat sedikit kebimbangan di kalangan pegawai pelaksana tentang guru-guru yang akan mengajar dalam bahasa Inggeris tidak bersedia dan sebagainya. Itu kita baru bercakap bagi Tahun Satu, tetapi kalau Datuk Seri hendak laksanakan secara serentak, kita boleh bayangkan masalahnya.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau kita hendakkan sesuatu, kita perlu terus selesaikan masalah sepanjang masa. Bila kita menghadapi sesuatu masalah, kita tidak boleh kata inilah penyelesaiannya. Kalau kita laksanakan kita akan berjaya, tidak. Penyelesaian itu tidak sepenuhnya betul. Semasa kita melaksanakan, kita akan jumpa bermacam-macam masalah lagi.
Tugas kita ialah mengatasi masalah. Kita perlu teruskan. Begitulah cara kita menangani krisis kewangan. Tiap-tiap hari kita duduk berbincang bagaimana hendak mengatasi masalah.
Datuk Seri, apakah perubahan-perubahan yang berlaku dalam beberapa bulan ini yang orang Melayu anggap sebagai perubahan drastik, boleh dilihat sebagai petanda awal ke arah penghapusan hak istimewa orang Melayu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Pada saya, yang pertama, itu bukan langkah awal untuk menghapuskan hak istimewa orang Melayu. Yang kedua, saya anggap hak istimewa orang Melayu adalah satu tongkat. Dan kalau kita selalu guna tongkat, sampai bila pun kita tempang.
Dengan lain perkataan, akan sampai satu masa kelak di mana hak ini akan dihapuskan.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau kita sudah jadi kaya, boleh beli harta Cina dan orang lain semuanya, kita lebih pandai daripada Cina, kalau kita masuk dalam pertandingan kita menang, apa perlunya hak istimewa orang Melayu. Orang Cina di Malaysia tidak ada hak istimewa. Mereka mungkin menganggap didiskriminasi. Tetapi mereka lebih berjaya daripada kita.
Pada fikiran Datuk Seri, kenapa orang Melayu begitu bimbang akan kehilangan hak istimewa ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Mereka tidak ada keyakinan. Sebab itu saya minta mereka lihat bagaimana (Datuk) Azhar Mansor belayar seorang diri keliling dunia. Bila orang Melayu jumpa dia, mereka tanya dia pakai ilmu apa, mereka ingat Azhar boleh dapat ilmu ajaib yang boleh bawa dia keliling dunia.
Jika tidak ada lagi hak istimewa Melayu, apakah kita kembali seperti Malayan Union yang UMNO tentang dahulu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kita tentang Malayan Union dulu kerana mereka beri semua sama rata pada waktu orang Melayu cukup lemah. Dalam keadaan Melayu begitu lemah, mereka akan hilang semua. Sekarang bukan kita hendak beri semua. Kita cuma beri 10 peratus saja, supaya dengan itu orang Melayu dapat uji kebolehannya.
Saya ada bercakap dengan Kolej Tunku Abdul Rahman (Kolej TAR), sebab apa tidak masukkan orang Melayu. Mereka kata ia terbuka, bila-bila masa mereka boleh masuk. Kita sediakan mereka biasiswa tetapi budak Melayu tidak mahu pergi ke Kolej TAR. Sebab apa, Cina banyak sangat dan mereka pandai-pandai pula. Tak ada permohonan Melayu ke Kolej TAR. Orang India ada juga mohon, tapi Melayu tidak mahu.
Pemuda UMNO ada membuat sedikit penyelidikan yang antara sebab Melayu tidak mahu belajar di IPTS kerana pertama tiada surau untuk bersembahyang dan satu lagi soal makanan, takut makanan yang dijual bukan halal.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau begitu tidak perlu pergi belajar ke luar negara. Kalau kita pergi England, takkan mereka sediakan surau di dalam Universiti Cambridge, di Universiti Nottingham. Boleh kita tentukan makanan semuanya disembelih, mereka tidak makan babi? Apa lagi alasan yang hendak kita beri?
Dasar 10 peratus kepada bukan bumiputera. Bolehkah Datuk Seri beri satu jaminan bahawa ia akan kekal 10 peratus?
DR. MAHATHIR: Bukan saya yang boleh beri jaminan. Ini untuk masa depan. Mengenai masa depan ini saya tidak tahu. Saya mungkin tiada lagi.
Apakah harapan Datuk Seri kepada ahli-ahli UMNO menjelang perhimpunan kali ini selepas Datuk Seri memimpin selama 21 tahun?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya gagal (ketawa sinis). Saya gagal mencapai perkara yang lebih penting - bagaimana hendak mengubah orang Melayu. UMNO pun kadang-kadang menjadi rosak kerana terlampau berebut hendak dapatkan tempat sampai sanggup kalau tidak dapat tempat, bagi orang UMNO kalah.
Tidakkah itu satu kenyataan yang penuh kekecewaan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tak tahulah… nak kata kecewa. Tapi saya bercakap berkenaan benda yang benar dan nyata. Saya tidak suka berselindung. Saya tidak suka menjadi begitu diplomatik. Saya kata apa yang saya fikir benar. Kalau orang kata tidak benar, tidak apalah. Tapi ini yang saya rasa dan lihat.
Katalah jam dapat diputar ke belakang dan Datuk Seri berada pada 28 Jun 1981, hari pertama Datuk Seri menjadi Presiden UMNO. Apa yang akan Datuk Seri lakukan?
Dr. Mahathir: Saya mahu jadi ahli biasa sahaja (sekali lagi ketawa sinis). Sebab saya tak boleh buat apa-apa (untuk mengubah orang Melayu).
Agak panjang, tapi it's worth to read between the lines
Apa yang patut orang melayu buat?
1 - Yakini diri, kuatkan azam, bersedia untuk susah
2 - Tingkatkan penguasaan bahasa inggeris, kejar ilmu
3 - Tingkatkan daya saing
Lagi senang untuk bercakap dari buat, tapi inilah resipi untuk mengubah budaya melayu!
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MINGGUAN: Datuk Seri telah menjadi Presiden UMNO selama 21 tahun, satu tempoh paling lama dibandingkan dengan presiden-presiden UMNO yang lain. Bagaimana Datuk Seri melihat orang Melayu selama 21 tahun Datuk Seri menjadi Presiden, dari mula-mula hingga sekarang.
DR. MAHATHIR: Ada juga kemajuan di kalangan orang Melayu. Tapi ada juga unsur-unsur negatif yang telah muncul dalam UMNO sendiri dan dalam masyarakat Melayu. Hakikatnya ialah kita tidak dapat mencapai matlamat kita iaitu Dasar Ekonomi Baru (DEB). Walaupun ada beberapa orang Melayu yang nampak berjaya baik dalam bidang perniagaan atau profesional, tetapi umumnya tidak ada banyak perubahan - baik dari segi sikap dan nilai-nilai yang dipegang oleh orang Melayu.
Apakah sikap dan unsur-unsur negatif di kalangan orang Melayu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Umpamanya, ramai yang suka mencari jalan mudah untuk menjayakan sesuatu, walaupun jalan yang mudah itu akan membawa akibat buruk dalam jangka panjang. Tidak ada yang serius untuk berusaha. Kita dapati di kalangan penuntut Melayu, walaupun jumlahnya ramai kerana jumlah orang Melayu juga telah meningkat, tetapi keinginan untuk mengejar ilmu agak berkurangan, terutama di kalangan penuntut lelaki.
Dalam bidang perniagaan ada yang betul-betul berusaha dan mencapai kejayaan tetapi lebih ramai yang hanya nampak peluang daripada lesen ataupun kontrak yang diberi oleh kerajaan untuk dijual kepada orang lain.
Datuk Seri menyebut tentang kegagalan mencapai matlamat DEB. Banyak mana yang dapat dicapai?
DR. MAHATHIR: Dulu kita capai sampai 20 peratus tetapi sekarang berkurangan hingga kepada 19 peratus. Daripada 19 peratus itu, 17 peratus adalah yang dimiliki oleh institusi-institusi bumiputera yang diurus oleh kerajaan, bumiputera sendiri cuma memiliki dua peratus. Bukan kerana kita tidak beri, kalau hendak dikira jumlah yang kita beri kepada bumiputera lebih daripada 30 peratus. Tetapi hampir semuanya dijual. Sebab itu kita tidak dapat mencapai matlamat. Sebab orang kita hendak cepat dapat duit. Kalau jual boleh dapat duit cepat. Kalau simpan, tidak merasa.
Apa yang tidak kena dengan orang Melayu? Kenapa mereka jadi begitu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tidak tahu apa nak kata. Kita sudah kata berkali-kali, jangan buat perkara semacam itu, tetapi ada yang datang jumpa saya, minta lesen dan kontrak. Mereka kata, “Saya susah, bagilah pada saya peluang.” Tapi dia beri juga kepada orang lain.
Matlamat DEB gagal dicapai walaupun sesudah 30 tahun. Ertinya, dasar diskriminasi positif pun gagal mengubah orang Melayu. Jadi, apa yang perlu dibuat?
DR. MAHATHIR: Itu orang Melayu patut tanya pada diri mereka sendiri, apa yang patut mereka buat. Saya sudah tunjuk apa yang patut mereka buat, tapi mereka masih juga hendakkan tongkat, hendak subsidi, hendak diberi keistimewaan.
Datuk Seri, kalau kita tarik balik subsidi dan hak istimewa itu, apakah orang Melayu akan mengubah sikap mereka?
DR. MAHATHIR: Itu kita sudah kata, umpamanya kita hendak benarkan 10 peratus bukan Melayu ke dalam Maktab Rendah Sains Mara (MRSM) dan program matrikulasi, itu pun orang kita tak sanggup. Kita hendak dikelilingi dengan satu kubu supaya orang lain tidak boleh masuk. Esok, kalau kita kena keluar dari kubu kita, kita tak boleh berperang dengan orang.
Apakah Datuk Seri rasa orang Melayu sudah bersedia untuk menghadapi persaingan tanpa perlindungan kerajaan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Belum bersedia. Sebab itu kalau kita masukkan 10 peratus pun mereka bersungut. Kita hendak kuota sana, kuota sini, kita juga hendak subsidi itu, subsidi ini.
Kita anggap, diberi layanan istimewa oleh kerajaan sebagai satu perkara yang mulia. Sebenarnya tidak mulia. Umpamanya, kalau di dalam negara, kita perlu diberi perlindungan sepanjang masa, keadaan kita samalah seperti orang Red Indian yang terpaksa dilindungi kerana begitu lemah dan ini akan menjadikan kita bertambah lemah.
Mengapa orang Melayu masih belum bersedia menghadapi perubahan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya nampak satu daripada masalahnya ialah politik. Ada orang apabila kita hendak buat perkara yang betul, maka mereka akan ancam melalui politik supaya jangan menyokong kerajaan.
Dalam politik demokrasi ini, begitulah. Bila kita hendak buat perkara yang betul, yang baik dan yang sakit sikit, ada orang berkata, ini sebahagian daripada isu politik.
Umpamanya sudah lama saya suruh orang kita belajar bahasa Inggeris, bukan (tujuan) hendak ganti bahasa Melayu, cuma hendak belajar bahasa Inggeris. Tetapi hal ini dijadikan isu yang cukup besar hingga kita tidak dapat laksanakan.
Hari ini, kita baru sedar bahawa bahasa Inggeris itu penting. Demikian juga dengan ilmu-ilmu lain yang saya sudah desak lama, lebih kurang 30 tahun dulu supaya belajar ilmu-ilmu lain itu, tetapi ada yang kata itu sekular, politik. Yang dahsyat sekali Pas. Pas tunggu saja bila kita buat sesuatu, ia jadikan isu supaya perkara yang baik ini tidak tercapai.
Siapa yang menentangnya?
DR. MAHATHIR: Sesetengah nasionalis bahasa Melayu. Orang ini ingat kalau kamu boleh bercakap Melayu dengan baik, sudah cukup, tidak tahu bahasa lain tidak mengapa. Ada juga segelintir dalam UMNO begitu. Jadi dia cari jalan mudah, maka tak perlulah dia belajar lebih.
Kena belajar Inggeris susah, lebih senang belajar dalam bahasa Melayu. Tapi, belajar dalam bahasa Melayu pun kita lihat budak-budak Cina boleh dapat kelulusan yang lebih baik. Dia berpidato dalam bahasa Melayu lebih baik daripada budak Melayu.
Tapi dalam hal ini Datuk Seri, bantahan dan rasa tidak senang nampaknya juga datang daripada kalangan UMNO sendiri.
DR. MAHATHIR: Yalah, dalam UMNO juga ada yang semacam itu, tapi mereka tidak jadikan itu sebagai isu untuk menghentam kerajaan, ataupun cuba menghakiskan sokongan kepada kerajaan. Mereka ini kritik kerana tidak faham tujuan sebenar kita membuat sesuatu.
Tentang mentaliti subsidi dan tongkat. Terdapat dua pandangan, satu pandangan mengatakan orang Melayu tidak berubah, tidak mahu kerja kuat kerana adanya tongkat itu. Jadi kalau kita hendak ubah orang Melayu, kita kena buang tongkat itu. Tetapi bila kita hendak membuangnya, mereka kata mereka tidak boleh bersaing tanpa tongkat. Bagaimana kita hendak pecahkan mentaliti ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Sebenarnya orang Melayu mampu buat. Kita telah buktikan apabila orang Melayu sanggup buat sesuatu, dia dapat menguasai perkara itu sama ada dari segi menuntut ilmu atau membuat kerja dengan cekap dan sebagainya. Semuanya boleh, tetapi keinginan untuk berusaha bersungguh-sungguh amat kurang sekali.
Kenapa?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tak tahu. Kita cuba tunjuk secara teladan. Kadang-kadang saya sudah tunjuk kita kerja kuat, bila balik dari luar negara, saya terus pergi pejabat - hendak tunjuk kerja kuat. Tetapi ada orang kata, Doktor bolehlah… itulah jawabnya.
Semua orang kagum melihat Datuk Seri bila balik pagi ini (Jumaat) boleh terus pergi kerja, tetapi mereka tidak ikut juga.
DR. MAHATHIR: Apa lagi… hendak tunjuk teladan sudah tunjuk, nak tunjuk ajar sudah ajar, marah sudah, menangis sudah, baca doa pun sudah. Semua saya dah buat.
Jadi apa yang silap dengan orang kita, Datuk Seri?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya anggap itu sudah menjadi satu budaya bagi kita. Kalau kita lihat ke tapak projek, kita harus tanya pada diri kita, kenapa tidak ada seorang pun Melayu yang bekerja dalam projek pembinaan. Apakah orang Melayu berbeza dengan orang Jawa, orang Sumatera yang bekerja kuat di situ. Mereka kerja sampai malam. Takkan kerana kulit kita coklat seperti ini, maka kita tak boleh buat kerja.
Itu budaya kita. Kita tak tahu susah, hendak senang selalu. Kalau naik tinggi sedikit, sudah gayat. Kerja lama sikit - letih, lenguh sampai tak boleh tidur. Saya selalu pergi melawat ke tempat tapak projek, saya lihat ada orang Indonesia, orang Cina, orang India, tapi orang Melayu tidak ada. Kalau kita lihat di situ kita tidak tahu ini Malaysia, negara orang Melayu. Kita ingat ini negara asing.
Datuk Seri, adakah ini kerana orang Melayu masih dengan mentaliti lama, di mana cukup makan dan cukup pakai sudah memadai?
DR. MAHATHIR: Baiklah… kalau cukup makan, cukup pakai, jadi tak payahlah bising-bising lagi. Apa nak politik lagi. Tapi kita bising. Kita hendak itu dan ini.
Apakah Datuk Seri berpuas hati dengan kedudukan orang Melayu setakat ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tidak. Cuba kita `cabut’ orang Cina, apa akan jadi. Katalah kita ambil Kuala lumpur, semua yang milik Cina kita keluarkan termasuk rumah dan bangunan mereka, apa yang tinggal… Kampung Baru… itu saja.
Selepas 44 tahun kita merdeka kita cuma ada tempat di Kampung Baru saja. Yang ada bangunan tinggi-tinggi pun milik agensi kerajaan. Cuba fikirkan tentang itu.
Datuk Seri, cubalah kita buat perubahan drastik, kita cabut hak istimewa Melayu.
DR. MAHATHIR: Mereka akan menjerit. Mereka tidak dapat hak istimewa. Mereka anggap hak istimewa ini satu kemuliaan. Sebenarnya hak istimewa bukan sesuatu yang mulia. Kalau kita kena selalu pakai tongkat, bermakna kita daif. Antara orang yang kena pakai tongkat dengan orang berjalan tegak, yang mana kamu pandang tinggi? Orang yang pakai tongkat atau orang jalan tegak?
Tapi itu akan memerlukan satu pembaharuan minda.
DR. MAHATHIR: Itulah yang akan terjadi, kita akan adakan seminar, bengkel dan macam-macam. Semua bercakap, para intelek akan bercakap sepanjang masa. Mereka berdebat dan mengeluarkan idea yang menakjubkan, tetapi di bawah ia tidak ada apa-apa makna.
Bukan susah hendak kerja. Hendak kerja ada dan kita boleh beri, tetapi kita rela biar orang lain buat kerja kita.
Kita hendak dapat duit subsidi. Duit subsidi hasil daripada kerja orang lain. Duit itu bukan datang daripada kita. Kalau hendak tahu, lihat cukai pendapatan, banyak mana orang Melayu bayar, banyak mana orang lain bayar. Bermakna duit yang dapat kepada kerajaan yang kita keluarkan sebagai subsidi itu datang daripada orang lain. Sampai bila kita hendak bergantung kepada orang lain?
Hanya Datuk Seri yang boleh bercakap kepada orang Melayu secara berterus terang dalam soal ini. Tidakkah Datuk Seri mahu mengejutkan mereka sekali lagi untuk menyedarkan mereka?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya sudah buat macam-macam, saya sudah pujuk, merayu, berdoa. Macam-macam saya sudah buat.
Ternyata orang Melayu masih menghadapi masalah besar. Boleh Datuk Seri sebutkan tiga saja masalah orang Melayu yang Datuk Seri anggap paling besar?
DR. MAHATHIR: Yang pertama, tidak sanggup untuk bekerja keras, tidak sanggup belajar bersungguh-sungguh. Tidak sanggup membuat sesuatu dengan bersungguh-sungguh.
Yang kedua, bila ada saja sesuatu perkara atau isu berlaku, kita sudah lupa tentang isu sebelum itu. Bila kita asyik tumpu pada isu itu maka kita berkelahi sesama sendiri. Ini balik kepada Melayu mudah lupa.
Yang ketiganya, apabila kita dapat sesuatu, kita tidak begitu menghargainya. Umpamanya kita dapat banyak bantuan subsidi, kalau diguna dengan baik kita akan dapat banyak untung, tetapi kita tidak gunakannya dengan baik.
Menjelang perhimpunan UMNO, orang Melayu sedang berdebat tentang soal penghapusan kuota universiti serta program matrikulasi dan MRSM dibuka kepada bukan Melayu. Ini satu isu yang betul-betul menyentuh hak istimewa Melayu. Kenapa Datuk Seri memilih waktu ini untuk melakukan perubahan ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tidak memilih masa. Saya lihat keadaan. Kalau keadaan memerlukan kita membuat tindakan, kita bertindak. Kita kata, kita perlu melakukan strategi, kalau kita buat begini, maka politik akan jadi begini. Kalau kita asyik fikir itu saja, bermakna kita tidak buat apa-apalah.
Perkara yang baik yang hendak kita buat, tidak ada yang popular. Kalau hendak jadi popular, apa saja orang minta, kita berilah. Kalau dia kata beri kuota 100 peratus kepadanya, kita beri. Kita boleh popular. Tetapi soalnya, baik atau tidak?
Perubahan ini (pembukaan MRSM dan Program Matrikulasi kepada bukan Melayu) adalah satu perubahan yang cukup besar, sebenarnya.
DR. MAHATHIR: Ini tidak besar, sedikit sangat.
Setidak-tidaknya itulah tanggapan di bawah sekarang. Sehingga bila keluar berita tentang perkara ini, pemimpin UMNO sendiri tidak dapat memberi jawapan.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kita sudah beri jawapan. Kita sudah terangkan kenapa kita buat. Di Malaysia terdapat 54 peratus Melayu, 26 peratus Cina, 10 peratus India, enam peratus bumiputera Sabah dan Sarawak (empat peratus lain-lain), itu pecahan masyarakat kita. Tetapi kita hendak latih orang Melayu dalam keadaan terasing daripada semua ini.
Esok bila kita keluar, kita hendak masuk masyarakat itu kita tidak tahu dan tidak mampu. Kerana kita tak pernah lihat orang. Jadi kalau kita sukar hendak buat demikian - orang Melayu bila keluar dari institusi pelajaran maka dia akan terkapar-kapar, hendak cakap dengan orang pun tidak tahu. Kadang-kadang bila bercakap dengan orang lain tidak tahu bahasa pun, jadi akhirnya kita dapati penuntut yang lulus dari universiti - dapat ijazah tapi tidak dapat kerja.
Sekarang orang bertanya tentang mohon kerja, ditanya lulus dari mana. Mereka jawab lulus universiti di Malaysia. Ada yang kata, Melayu yang lulus di luar negara mungkin mendapat lebih peluang kerja daripada Melayu yang lulus dari universiti dalam negara. Kenapa? Kerana universiti dalam Malaysia ini, kaum-kaum sudah tidak bercampur gaul lagi.
Dalam universiti mereka tidak campur sama sekali, hendak bagi senang tidak bercampur ialah kita masukkan sikit soal agama. Kita hendak tidur dalam satu bilik asrama, tak boleh (campur kaum lain) sebab kita nak sembahyang, kita takut kotor. Kita cari jalan supaya kita diasingkan.
Semasa saya belajar di universiti, saya bercampur dengan Cina dan India. Saya masih Melayu dan pegangan Islam saya masih kuat.
Datuk Seri menggambarkan ini penyakit orang Melayu sekarang. Apakah dengan langkah drastik yang dibuat oleh kerajaan sekarang kita akan mengubah sikap orang Melayu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tidak buat benda yang drastik, baru 10 peratus. Sedangkan dalam masyarakat kita 45 peratus terdiri daripada orang bukan Melayu. Kalau hendak ikut peratusan sepatutnya 45 peratus. Tapi kita cuma masukkan 10 peratus dan kita sudah berasa takut.
Sekarang timbul kebimbangan orang Melayu. Permulaannya 10 peratus Datuk Seri, tapi apa akan berlaku selepas ini? Keretakan sudah berlaku dan itu yang membimbangkan Melayu. Apa jawapan Datuk Seri kepada kebimbangan ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya tak ada jawapan. Pada pendapat saya, kalau kita mampu bersaing dengan 10 peratus, kita akan mampu bersaing dengan 20 peratus dan 30 peratus. Tapi kalau kita kata dengan 10 peratus pun kita tidak berani, maka kita tak boleh bersaing sampai bila-bila.
Datuk Seri percaya orang Melayu sudah bersedia untuk bersaing tanpa perlindungan kerajaan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau mereka tidak dicuba, sampai bila-bila pun kita tidak akan tahu.
Datuk Seri, apa akan jadi jika perubahan ini tidak berjalan dengan baik? Pada tahun ini semuanya nampak baik. Tetapi dalam pengajian-pengajian kritikal seperti perubatan, pelajar bumiputera masih tidak dapat memenuhi kuota. Bagaimana hendak tangani hal ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau kita tidak biasa susah, kita tidak kuat kerja. Kita senang, hendak masuk universiti ada tempat, semua kita ada. Yang hak orang lain pun kita hendak lagi, tapi dia tidak boleh masuk, bukan sebab sudah penuh.
Inilah masalah orang Melayu - tidak pernah susah, dapat dengan senang. Kalau susah sikit, dia menjerit. Bukan susah banyak, susah sikit saja. Tidak ada yang radikal, hanya 10 peratus.
Pada fikiran Datuk Seri, dengan perubahan ini sikap Melayu boleh diubah?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya harap begitulah, saya tidak tahu macam mana lagi. Saya mungkin salah.
Tentang pengajaran mata pelajaran Sains dan Matematik dalam bahasa Inggeris. Apakah ia akan diteruskan dan tidak mungkin berpatah ke belakang semula?
DR. MAHATHIR: Sudah tentu, kalau kita semua tidak mahu, apa saya nak buat. Saya tak ada kuasa.
Tentu Datuk Seri sedar bahawa orang Melayu perlu dibuat keputusan untuk mereka dan dipimpin mereka.
DR. MAHATHIR: Jika saya buat keputusan untuk mereka dan memimpin mereka, sepatutnya sekarang saya sudah berjaya. Saya sudah buat keputusan, tetapi tidak jadi juga. Kita kata orang Melayu tidak ada peluang hendak berniaga, saya putuskan kita beri peluang kepada mereka. Kita ada lebih 30 dana untuk tolong orang Melayu. Tapi kalau dapat duit pun, dia tidak berniaga betul-betul.
Datuk Seri, kalau pengajaran bahasa Inggeris dalam dua subjek itu untuk Tahun Satu dimulakan tahun depan, ia akan mengambil 11 tahun untuk melihat hasilnya. Apakah kita ada masa 11 tahun?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tidak, kita mahu mulakan semua sekali secara serentak. Itu kalau saya. Saya ada cara saya. Kita akan adakan kursus seperti dua tiga mata pelajaran digabungkan untuk diajar secara serentak di Tahun Lima atau apa saja cara dia belajar untuk Tahun Lima dengan mencantumkan pelajaran (dua subjek itu) dari Tahun Satu, Dua, Tiga dan Empat secara serentak. Kita boleh buat, bukan mustahil sangat tetapi kita perlu kerja kuat, kita kena belajar.
Jadi semua pengajaran Sains dan Matematik dalam bahasa Inggeris akan dilakukan secara serentak mulai tahun depan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Semua sekali. Saya boleh. Saya tahu bagaimana hendak melaksanakannya.
Tetapi Datuk Seri, ini suatu tindakan untuk kembali kepada aliran Inggeris sebenarnya.
DR. MAHATHIR: Tidak, tidak perlu sama sekali.
Apakah salah kalau kita wujudkan semula aliran Inggeris?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau begitu, mati langsung bahasa Melayu. Bahasa Melayu kita guna. Kita kena hidupkan bahasa Melayu. Identiti kita terikat kepada bahasa kita.
Selain mengajar Sains dan Matematik dalam bahasa Inggeris, kenapa tidak perkenalkan semula aliran Inggeris sebagai satu pilihan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tak boleh. Kalau kita beri Inggeris sebagai satu pilihan bermakna orang Melayu tidak belajar bahasa Inggeris. Nilai ekonominya akan jatuh. Orang ini akan tinggi nilai ekonominya dan orang ini tidak ada nilai, terutama dalam dunia sekarang yang mana orang Cina, Jepun, Perancis dan Jerman pun belajar bahasa Inggeris.
Kenyataannya, bahasa Inggeris menjadi lingua franca dan kita pula tidak mahu belajar. Kita tidak mahu belajar sebab kita orang Melayu.
Datuk Seri, terdapat sedikit kebimbangan di kalangan pegawai pelaksana tentang guru-guru yang akan mengajar dalam bahasa Inggeris tidak bersedia dan sebagainya. Itu kita baru bercakap bagi Tahun Satu, tetapi kalau Datuk Seri hendak laksanakan secara serentak, kita boleh bayangkan masalahnya.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau kita hendakkan sesuatu, kita perlu terus selesaikan masalah sepanjang masa. Bila kita menghadapi sesuatu masalah, kita tidak boleh kata inilah penyelesaiannya. Kalau kita laksanakan kita akan berjaya, tidak. Penyelesaian itu tidak sepenuhnya betul. Semasa kita melaksanakan, kita akan jumpa bermacam-macam masalah lagi.
Tugas kita ialah mengatasi masalah. Kita perlu teruskan. Begitulah cara kita menangani krisis kewangan. Tiap-tiap hari kita duduk berbincang bagaimana hendak mengatasi masalah.
Datuk Seri, apakah perubahan-perubahan yang berlaku dalam beberapa bulan ini yang orang Melayu anggap sebagai perubahan drastik, boleh dilihat sebagai petanda awal ke arah penghapusan hak istimewa orang Melayu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Pada saya, yang pertama, itu bukan langkah awal untuk menghapuskan hak istimewa orang Melayu. Yang kedua, saya anggap hak istimewa orang Melayu adalah satu tongkat. Dan kalau kita selalu guna tongkat, sampai bila pun kita tempang.
Dengan lain perkataan, akan sampai satu masa kelak di mana hak ini akan dihapuskan.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau kita sudah jadi kaya, boleh beli harta Cina dan orang lain semuanya, kita lebih pandai daripada Cina, kalau kita masuk dalam pertandingan kita menang, apa perlunya hak istimewa orang Melayu. Orang Cina di Malaysia tidak ada hak istimewa. Mereka mungkin menganggap didiskriminasi. Tetapi mereka lebih berjaya daripada kita.
Pada fikiran Datuk Seri, kenapa orang Melayu begitu bimbang akan kehilangan hak istimewa ini?
DR. MAHATHIR: Mereka tidak ada keyakinan. Sebab itu saya minta mereka lihat bagaimana (Datuk) Azhar Mansor belayar seorang diri keliling dunia. Bila orang Melayu jumpa dia, mereka tanya dia pakai ilmu apa, mereka ingat Azhar boleh dapat ilmu ajaib yang boleh bawa dia keliling dunia.
Jika tidak ada lagi hak istimewa Melayu, apakah kita kembali seperti Malayan Union yang UMNO tentang dahulu?
DR. MAHATHIR: Kita tentang Malayan Union dulu kerana mereka beri semua sama rata pada waktu orang Melayu cukup lemah. Dalam keadaan Melayu begitu lemah, mereka akan hilang semua. Sekarang bukan kita hendak beri semua. Kita cuma beri 10 peratus saja, supaya dengan itu orang Melayu dapat uji kebolehannya.
Saya ada bercakap dengan Kolej Tunku Abdul Rahman (Kolej TAR), sebab apa tidak masukkan orang Melayu. Mereka kata ia terbuka, bila-bila masa mereka boleh masuk. Kita sediakan mereka biasiswa tetapi budak Melayu tidak mahu pergi ke Kolej TAR. Sebab apa, Cina banyak sangat dan mereka pandai-pandai pula. Tak ada permohonan Melayu ke Kolej TAR. Orang India ada juga mohon, tapi Melayu tidak mahu.
Pemuda UMNO ada membuat sedikit penyelidikan yang antara sebab Melayu tidak mahu belajar di IPTS kerana pertama tiada surau untuk bersembahyang dan satu lagi soal makanan, takut makanan yang dijual bukan halal.
DR. MAHATHIR: Kalau begitu tidak perlu pergi belajar ke luar negara. Kalau kita pergi England, takkan mereka sediakan surau di dalam Universiti Cambridge, di Universiti Nottingham. Boleh kita tentukan makanan semuanya disembelih, mereka tidak makan babi? Apa lagi alasan yang hendak kita beri?
Dasar 10 peratus kepada bukan bumiputera. Bolehkah Datuk Seri beri satu jaminan bahawa ia akan kekal 10 peratus?
DR. MAHATHIR: Bukan saya yang boleh beri jaminan. Ini untuk masa depan. Mengenai masa depan ini saya tidak tahu. Saya mungkin tiada lagi.
Apakah harapan Datuk Seri kepada ahli-ahli UMNO menjelang perhimpunan kali ini selepas Datuk Seri memimpin selama 21 tahun?
DR. MAHATHIR: Saya gagal (ketawa sinis). Saya gagal mencapai perkara yang lebih penting - bagaimana hendak mengubah orang Melayu. UMNO pun kadang-kadang menjadi rosak kerana terlampau berebut hendak dapatkan tempat sampai sanggup kalau tidak dapat tempat, bagi orang UMNO kalah.
Tidakkah itu satu kenyataan yang penuh kekecewaan?
DR. MAHATHIR: Tak tahulah… nak kata kecewa. Tapi saya bercakap berkenaan benda yang benar dan nyata. Saya tidak suka berselindung. Saya tidak suka menjadi begitu diplomatik. Saya kata apa yang saya fikir benar. Kalau orang kata tidak benar, tidak apalah. Tapi ini yang saya rasa dan lihat.
Katalah jam dapat diputar ke belakang dan Datuk Seri berada pada 28 Jun 1981, hari pertama Datuk Seri menjadi Presiden UMNO. Apa yang akan Datuk Seri lakukan?
Dr. Mahathir: Saya mahu jadi ahli biasa sahaja (sekali lagi ketawa sinis). Sebab saya tak boleh buat apa-apa (untuk mengubah orang Melayu).
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Menang di Permatang Pauh? : Ma Fi Musykillah
1. Seperti yang ramai menjangkakan, Anwar menang. Walaubagaimanapun, Malaymind secara peribadi gagal menjangka jumlah majoriti yang pada mulanya munasabah dikatakan hanya dalam 3000 undi.
2. Seperti yang dinyatakan oleh akubetul, Malaymind bersetuju Anwar menang disebabkan faktor tempatan. Isu nasional nampaknya tidak memberi kesan terhadap undi malah strategi UMNO untuk menggula – gulakan rakyat dengan penurunan harga minyak dan menjatuhkan maruah Anwar kekal tidak berjaya lagi buat masa ini.
3. Tidak dinafikan, Anwar membawa harapan rakyat. Kepetahan bercakap, karisma dan bijak mencari sokongan merupakan resipi Anwar sejak dari dulu lagi. Malah, beliau mampu menjadi orang tengah buat DAP dan PAS yang memang tidak pernah pun sebulu.
4. Itulah kelebihan Anwar.
5. Disebalik kemenangan itu, TDM tetap menyalahkan DSAAB di dalam tulisan terbarunya dan meminta ahli UMNO memberi tekanan supaya DSAAB meletak jawatan. DSAAB pula tetap menafikan ia adalah satu mesej untuk beliau.
6. Di pihak Pakatan Rakyat, mereka nampaknya sudah mula berkira-kira untuk memerintah Malaysia kerana menganggap kemenangan ini adalah mesej jelas dari rakyat Malaysia.
7. Namun, ramai juga yang menganggap perjuangan Anwar perlu berhenti di peringkat ini. Anwar sememangnya dilihat boleh menjadi ketua pembangkang yang hebat dan menjadi ‘check and balance’ di Parlimen, tetapi beliau tidak mempunyai ciri-ciri menjadi perdana menteri.
8. Yang pastinya, rakyat sudah boleh tidur lena dengan adanya Anwar di Parlimen kerana persepsinya, beliau adalah pejuang rakyat.
9. Namun sekiranya beliau dan penyokong fanatiknya tetap berkeras untuk merampas kerajaan menjelang 16 September ini, maka kita rakyat akan menjangkakan satu episod baru politik tanah air.
10. Ironinya Anwar gagal menjadi PM, sudah tentulah pelbagai alasan bakal diberikan. BN akan tetap menjadi kambing hitam kegagalan Anwar.
11. Menang di Permatang Pauh? Ma Fi Musykillah.
12. Mahu menuju ke Putrajaya? La’
2. Seperti yang dinyatakan oleh akubetul, Malaymind bersetuju Anwar menang disebabkan faktor tempatan. Isu nasional nampaknya tidak memberi kesan terhadap undi malah strategi UMNO untuk menggula – gulakan rakyat dengan penurunan harga minyak dan menjatuhkan maruah Anwar kekal tidak berjaya lagi buat masa ini.
3. Tidak dinafikan, Anwar membawa harapan rakyat. Kepetahan bercakap, karisma dan bijak mencari sokongan merupakan resipi Anwar sejak dari dulu lagi. Malah, beliau mampu menjadi orang tengah buat DAP dan PAS yang memang tidak pernah pun sebulu.
4. Itulah kelebihan Anwar.
5. Disebalik kemenangan itu, TDM tetap menyalahkan DSAAB di dalam tulisan terbarunya dan meminta ahli UMNO memberi tekanan supaya DSAAB meletak jawatan. DSAAB pula tetap menafikan ia adalah satu mesej untuk beliau.
6. Di pihak Pakatan Rakyat, mereka nampaknya sudah mula berkira-kira untuk memerintah Malaysia kerana menganggap kemenangan ini adalah mesej jelas dari rakyat Malaysia.
7. Namun, ramai juga yang menganggap perjuangan Anwar perlu berhenti di peringkat ini. Anwar sememangnya dilihat boleh menjadi ketua pembangkang yang hebat dan menjadi ‘check and balance’ di Parlimen, tetapi beliau tidak mempunyai ciri-ciri menjadi perdana menteri.
8. Yang pastinya, rakyat sudah boleh tidur lena dengan adanya Anwar di Parlimen kerana persepsinya, beliau adalah pejuang rakyat.
9. Namun sekiranya beliau dan penyokong fanatiknya tetap berkeras untuk merampas kerajaan menjelang 16 September ini, maka kita rakyat akan menjangkakan satu episod baru politik tanah air.
10. Ironinya Anwar gagal menjadi PM, sudah tentulah pelbagai alasan bakal diberikan. BN akan tetap menjadi kambing hitam kegagalan Anwar.
11. Menang di Permatang Pauh? Ma Fi Musykillah.
12. Mahu menuju ke Putrajaya? La’
Friday, August 22, 2008
TDM'S Speech: Current Global Economic Impact on Malaysia
SPEECH BY
TUN DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
AT THE MAFAA DIALOGUE
AT THE SHERATON HOTEL SUBANG, PETALING JAYA
ON WEDNESDAY, 20 AUGUST 2008
—————————
“Current Global Economic Impact on Malaysia”
1. Malaysia is a trading nation. It had been one for 1800 years. It is hard to believe this but this is what I read in a paper written by an American academic who was attached to one of the Malaysian Government Universities.
2. In the beginning it was only about collecting jungle produce like gums and aromatic wood to exchange for lacquer ware, ceramic and paper etc from China. Since then we have made tremendous progress in trading. Now we produce and export, apart from raw rubber and palm oil, also microchips and electronic manufactured goods.
3. A trading nation is very sensitive to what is happening to its trading partners. Obviously when partners do well, we can expect to export more and do well ourselves. And the reverse is also true. When partners suffer from economic disease, we tend to catch the disease as well.
4. That is why you may remember we promoted the slogan “prosper thy neighbour”. When neighbours are prosperous we can expect to sell more to them and vice versa. Apart from that in these days of easy travel and porous borders we can expect a fallout from neighbours with problems in the form of illegal immigrants.
5. Today we have become a world trade centre, exporting and importing from almost 200 different countries. The economic health of these countries are important to us. And certainly the economic health of the world is extremely important to our own economic health.
6. What is the economic situation in the world today? There is turmoil and unprecedented increases in the prices of practically everything.
7. We have seen some inflation before but never on the scale we are seeing now.
8. Oil for example went up by almost 400%. Other raw materials like steel, copper, aluminium have also gone up sky high. So have food grains and edible oils.
9. The increases in prices of these basic raw materials have inflated the prices of everything else.
10. Oil is crucial to transportation, whether by land, sea or air. The sharp increase in oil price must push up the cost of everything that is transported by any means anywhere. We have as yet not found alternative fuels and improvements in fuel efficiency have not reduced consumption significantly.
11. World consumption of fuel oil goes up everyday. Although new reserves are being found and produced, production has not been able to keep up with consumption. Demand pull has increased the price a little but the ridiculous increase of 400% is more due to speculation and manipulation. On any day more oil is traded than is produced or available in storage. These activities are what cause the increase in oil price, the apparent shortages and again the greater increase in price.
12. The increase in other raw material price is due to increased demand by two economic giants, especially China. Together with India and several other Newly Industrialising countries of Asia, all developing rapidly and involved in massive construction and industries the demand for raw material like steel, copper, aluminium, rubber, edible oils, food grains has caused shortages and unprecedented increases in price. The shortage of food grains was caused by seasonal decreases in production. But this is going to happen again and again.
13. The war in Iraq is another important factor. Every United States President has promised to reduce the deficit in the U.S. budget but at the end of their terms the deficits have increased. But President Bush is going to leave to his successor the biggest budget deficit in the U.S. history. But worse than that he will leave behind a much-devalued U. S. dollar.
14. It is due to his reckless spending on tax cuts of 1.3 trillion for the rich. The war in Iraq has already cost the U.S. 3 trillion dollars according to (former World Bank Chief Economist) Joseph Stiglitz and will continue to cost more.
15. Other countries would have gone bankrupt with the twin deficits the United States suffers from. Although the United States has not, still the faith in the U.S.D. as a trading currency and as reserves has all but disappeared. The dollar is but a shadow of its former self. Once countries reject the U.S.D. as trading currency and as reserves the greenback would become quite worthless. Unfortunately the countries, including Malaysia, which hold dollar reserves will lose also. That is why countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Japan and little Singapore keep on trying to shore up the US Dollar.
16. Of course it is not just Bush who is making the US Dollar useless. It is the playing around with money by institutions and funds in the US. Loans and mortgages are sold like commodities. The amounts involved are huge. Cash has almost been outlawed as plastics of all kinds are used as money in daily transactions.
17. Banks distribute credit cards without caring whether the holders would have money to pay or not. They claim to know the average losses and therefore despite failures to meet credit card debts they would still make profits.
18. But when millions of credit cards are used worldwide the bad debts must be quite considerable. People are living on the never never as never before. But one day all these shuffling of figures in bank books must blow up.
19. Apparently that is what has happened to sub prime lending for housing. Banks and institutional funds are falling like nine-pins. The Great United States which use to tell us not to bail out bankrupt companies now put up as much as 200 billion dollars to bail out the banks and now the mortgage companies with fancy names like Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae.
20. With all these things happening to the financial sector of the United States the Dollar cannot possibly stay strong. When it weakens a lot of countries which hold reserves in US Dollar must suffer. And Malaysia too must feel it as despite very early warnings we still like a chunk of our reserves to be in US Dollar.
21. Inflation takes place all the time in every country. Certainly Malaysia is not an exception. The factors influencing inflation are internal as well as external. And as a trading nation with total trade of more than 100 billion a year, Malaysia cannot possible escape the current world wide inflation, an inflation which affects every one of our trading partners.
22. Nevertheless we would be more fortunate than most of our neighbours. This is due to the unusual rise in the prices of the commodities we export. We also export manufactured goods but the imported contents of these are high and they have all increased in price. Still the trade balance will remain much in our favour for some time.
23. What are the raw materials we export? Although we are a small producer of oil, our population is not big. After consuming about two thirds we can still export a tidy sum. Together with our foreign oil operations our revenue from oil actually exceeds our total revenue from income and corporate tax. For a country with a small oil production we have done rather well and hopefully will continue doing well for some time.
24. All the taxes and dividends from Petronas would go to the Government Consolidated funds and much of it would be used to subsidise pump prices for oil. The Government has withdrawn much of this subsidy but I think even at the higher pump price there would be some subsidy element.
25. Oil price may go down but never to the old level. So Malaysians will have to put up with high oil price.
26. Gas is subsidised by Petronas. Now gas has to be imported by Petronas at world prices. To sell it at low prices fixed by the Government for the IPPs (Independent Power Producers) would mean Petronas would have to subsidise it. Other oil companies would not want to do it. Perhaps you may have noticed that Natural Gas for motor vehicles is only sold by Petronas.
27. Over time consumption of oil and gas will exceed local supply. There will be no excess to export and to earn the money to subsidise oil and gas prices. Government revenues from other sources would not be enough to subsidise oil prices. So we will have to face this prospect of high oil prices, even if world prices go below US100 Dollar per barrel.
28. With increases in oil prices other goods and services will increase in price also. And of course the increases in raw material prices world wide will increase the cost of these at home. Construction material and construction cost must all go up.
29. Generally the impact of Current Global Economy on Malaysia would be to raise the cost of living – i.e. it will cause inflation. Now the rate of inflation is said to be 7%. This is misleading. For most ordinary people it must seem much more. Just the increase in oil price is 40%. And the increase in other food products are much higher.
30. Malaysians will be facing unprecedented inflation rate. The result must be demands for increases in wages and salaries. This must add to cost and will contribute to increases in prices of local products as well as exported goods.
31. But then the increases in oil and raw material costs must affect other countries too. Our competitors would not be free from high inflation. So the competitive advantage of the low labour cost countries would not increase much as their costs would also have to go up.
32. But oil is not the only raw material we export. We also export palm oil and rubber together with some tin, pepper and cocoa. All these have increased in price and will therefore increase our export earnings. In fact the present increase in the value of our trade and the surplus are mainly due to the increases in oil, palm oil and rubber prices.
33. The raw material price increases are far more beneficial to us than the increase in the price of manufactured goods. This is because much of the manufactured goods have imported contents which have all increased in price. The profit margin may not increase percentage-wise. Besides although the figure for exports of manufactured good may be quite high, we would earn little for they are mostly tax-free.
34. Still manufacturing will remain important because of the employment of large numbers of people. Unfortunately more foreigners would be likely to be employed and their remittance would be very substantial. The outflow of cash would be quite substantial.
35. Although the cost of travelling would go up, there will continue to be more tourists coming to Malaysia. This is because our main source of tourists are China and other Asian countries. These countries are likely to grow higher than world average and more people would be wage earners in new industries. They would want to travel.
36. Initially the people in newly industrialising countries would go to places closer to their countries. We are close to all these countries and so we would benefit from the economic growth of these countries. Our tourist industry does not depend on Europe or America. So the reduction in the numbers of European and American tourists will not affect us.
37. Although palm oil and rubber production can go on producing forever, but Malaysia is short of land. More and more of our estates would be developed in foreign land. This will contribute to our economy.
38. Malaysia’s growth will slow down as much because of global regression as by local factors. What is certain however is that we will have a high cost environment domestically and internationally? All countries will have to learn to deal with this new global and domestic environment.
39. For a time we would be less negatively affected than most other developing countries. But eventually we will have to face the fact of a world in economic turmoil, a high cost world and a shifting of the centers of growth from the West to the East.
40. When finally the world learns to live in this environment Malaysia will find everything has changed. The old comfortable way of growing the economy will be gone. Whether Malaysia will emerge better off or worse would depend upon our understanding of the changes and the adjustment we will make. We will see our trade and our growth becoming more influenced by the countries of Asia, in particular China and India. The increasing wealth of the Gulf States will also change the direction of our trade and the sources of foreign investments.
41. Investments from the oil-rich states would be largely in property development. If we succeed in training our workforce we may continue to attract high-tech industries.
42. Of course the impact on Malaysia of current global economic changes would depend much on how we adjust to them and how we manage them.
TUN DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD
AT THE MAFAA DIALOGUE
AT THE SHERATON HOTEL SUBANG, PETALING JAYA
ON WEDNESDAY, 20 AUGUST 2008
—————————
“Current Global Economic Impact on Malaysia”
1. Malaysia is a trading nation. It had been one for 1800 years. It is hard to believe this but this is what I read in a paper written by an American academic who was attached to one of the Malaysian Government Universities.
2. In the beginning it was only about collecting jungle produce like gums and aromatic wood to exchange for lacquer ware, ceramic and paper etc from China. Since then we have made tremendous progress in trading. Now we produce and export, apart from raw rubber and palm oil, also microchips and electronic manufactured goods.
3. A trading nation is very sensitive to what is happening to its trading partners. Obviously when partners do well, we can expect to export more and do well ourselves. And the reverse is also true. When partners suffer from economic disease, we tend to catch the disease as well.
4. That is why you may remember we promoted the slogan “prosper thy neighbour”. When neighbours are prosperous we can expect to sell more to them and vice versa. Apart from that in these days of easy travel and porous borders we can expect a fallout from neighbours with problems in the form of illegal immigrants.
5. Today we have become a world trade centre, exporting and importing from almost 200 different countries. The economic health of these countries are important to us. And certainly the economic health of the world is extremely important to our own economic health.
6. What is the economic situation in the world today? There is turmoil and unprecedented increases in the prices of practically everything.
7. We have seen some inflation before but never on the scale we are seeing now.
8. Oil for example went up by almost 400%. Other raw materials like steel, copper, aluminium have also gone up sky high. So have food grains and edible oils.
9. The increases in prices of these basic raw materials have inflated the prices of everything else.
10. Oil is crucial to transportation, whether by land, sea or air. The sharp increase in oil price must push up the cost of everything that is transported by any means anywhere. We have as yet not found alternative fuels and improvements in fuel efficiency have not reduced consumption significantly.
11. World consumption of fuel oil goes up everyday. Although new reserves are being found and produced, production has not been able to keep up with consumption. Demand pull has increased the price a little but the ridiculous increase of 400% is more due to speculation and manipulation. On any day more oil is traded than is produced or available in storage. These activities are what cause the increase in oil price, the apparent shortages and again the greater increase in price.
12. The increase in other raw material price is due to increased demand by two economic giants, especially China. Together with India and several other Newly Industrialising countries of Asia, all developing rapidly and involved in massive construction and industries the demand for raw material like steel, copper, aluminium, rubber, edible oils, food grains has caused shortages and unprecedented increases in price. The shortage of food grains was caused by seasonal decreases in production. But this is going to happen again and again.
13. The war in Iraq is another important factor. Every United States President has promised to reduce the deficit in the U.S. budget but at the end of their terms the deficits have increased. But President Bush is going to leave to his successor the biggest budget deficit in the U.S. history. But worse than that he will leave behind a much-devalued U. S. dollar.
14. It is due to his reckless spending on tax cuts of 1.3 trillion for the rich. The war in Iraq has already cost the U.S. 3 trillion dollars according to (former World Bank Chief Economist) Joseph Stiglitz and will continue to cost more.
15. Other countries would have gone bankrupt with the twin deficits the United States suffers from. Although the United States has not, still the faith in the U.S.D. as a trading currency and as reserves has all but disappeared. The dollar is but a shadow of its former self. Once countries reject the U.S.D. as trading currency and as reserves the greenback would become quite worthless. Unfortunately the countries, including Malaysia, which hold dollar reserves will lose also. That is why countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Japan and little Singapore keep on trying to shore up the US Dollar.
16. Of course it is not just Bush who is making the US Dollar useless. It is the playing around with money by institutions and funds in the US. Loans and mortgages are sold like commodities. The amounts involved are huge. Cash has almost been outlawed as plastics of all kinds are used as money in daily transactions.
17. Banks distribute credit cards without caring whether the holders would have money to pay or not. They claim to know the average losses and therefore despite failures to meet credit card debts they would still make profits.
18. But when millions of credit cards are used worldwide the bad debts must be quite considerable. People are living on the never never as never before. But one day all these shuffling of figures in bank books must blow up.
19. Apparently that is what has happened to sub prime lending for housing. Banks and institutional funds are falling like nine-pins. The Great United States which use to tell us not to bail out bankrupt companies now put up as much as 200 billion dollars to bail out the banks and now the mortgage companies with fancy names like Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae.
20. With all these things happening to the financial sector of the United States the Dollar cannot possibly stay strong. When it weakens a lot of countries which hold reserves in US Dollar must suffer. And Malaysia too must feel it as despite very early warnings we still like a chunk of our reserves to be in US Dollar.
21. Inflation takes place all the time in every country. Certainly Malaysia is not an exception. The factors influencing inflation are internal as well as external. And as a trading nation with total trade of more than 100 billion a year, Malaysia cannot possible escape the current world wide inflation, an inflation which affects every one of our trading partners.
22. Nevertheless we would be more fortunate than most of our neighbours. This is due to the unusual rise in the prices of the commodities we export. We also export manufactured goods but the imported contents of these are high and they have all increased in price. Still the trade balance will remain much in our favour for some time.
23. What are the raw materials we export? Although we are a small producer of oil, our population is not big. After consuming about two thirds we can still export a tidy sum. Together with our foreign oil operations our revenue from oil actually exceeds our total revenue from income and corporate tax. For a country with a small oil production we have done rather well and hopefully will continue doing well for some time.
24. All the taxes and dividends from Petronas would go to the Government Consolidated funds and much of it would be used to subsidise pump prices for oil. The Government has withdrawn much of this subsidy but I think even at the higher pump price there would be some subsidy element.
25. Oil price may go down but never to the old level. So Malaysians will have to put up with high oil price.
26. Gas is subsidised by Petronas. Now gas has to be imported by Petronas at world prices. To sell it at low prices fixed by the Government for the IPPs (Independent Power Producers) would mean Petronas would have to subsidise it. Other oil companies would not want to do it. Perhaps you may have noticed that Natural Gas for motor vehicles is only sold by Petronas.
27. Over time consumption of oil and gas will exceed local supply. There will be no excess to export and to earn the money to subsidise oil and gas prices. Government revenues from other sources would not be enough to subsidise oil prices. So we will have to face this prospect of high oil prices, even if world prices go below US100 Dollar per barrel.
28. With increases in oil prices other goods and services will increase in price also. And of course the increases in raw material prices world wide will increase the cost of these at home. Construction material and construction cost must all go up.
29. Generally the impact of Current Global Economy on Malaysia would be to raise the cost of living – i.e. it will cause inflation. Now the rate of inflation is said to be 7%. This is misleading. For most ordinary people it must seem much more. Just the increase in oil price is 40%. And the increase in other food products are much higher.
30. Malaysians will be facing unprecedented inflation rate. The result must be demands for increases in wages and salaries. This must add to cost and will contribute to increases in prices of local products as well as exported goods.
31. But then the increases in oil and raw material costs must affect other countries too. Our competitors would not be free from high inflation. So the competitive advantage of the low labour cost countries would not increase much as their costs would also have to go up.
32. But oil is not the only raw material we export. We also export palm oil and rubber together with some tin, pepper and cocoa. All these have increased in price and will therefore increase our export earnings. In fact the present increase in the value of our trade and the surplus are mainly due to the increases in oil, palm oil and rubber prices.
33. The raw material price increases are far more beneficial to us than the increase in the price of manufactured goods. This is because much of the manufactured goods have imported contents which have all increased in price. The profit margin may not increase percentage-wise. Besides although the figure for exports of manufactured good may be quite high, we would earn little for they are mostly tax-free.
34. Still manufacturing will remain important because of the employment of large numbers of people. Unfortunately more foreigners would be likely to be employed and their remittance would be very substantial. The outflow of cash would be quite substantial.
35. Although the cost of travelling would go up, there will continue to be more tourists coming to Malaysia. This is because our main source of tourists are China and other Asian countries. These countries are likely to grow higher than world average and more people would be wage earners in new industries. They would want to travel.
36. Initially the people in newly industrialising countries would go to places closer to their countries. We are close to all these countries and so we would benefit from the economic growth of these countries. Our tourist industry does not depend on Europe or America. So the reduction in the numbers of European and American tourists will not affect us.
37. Although palm oil and rubber production can go on producing forever, but Malaysia is short of land. More and more of our estates would be developed in foreign land. This will contribute to our economy.
38. Malaysia’s growth will slow down as much because of global regression as by local factors. What is certain however is that we will have a high cost environment domestically and internationally? All countries will have to learn to deal with this new global and domestic environment.
39. For a time we would be less negatively affected than most other developing countries. But eventually we will have to face the fact of a world in economic turmoil, a high cost world and a shifting of the centers of growth from the West to the East.
40. When finally the world learns to live in this environment Malaysia will find everything has changed. The old comfortable way of growing the economy will be gone. Whether Malaysia will emerge better off or worse would depend upon our understanding of the changes and the adjustment we will make. We will see our trade and our growth becoming more influenced by the countries of Asia, in particular China and India. The increasing wealth of the Gulf States will also change the direction of our trade and the sources of foreign investments.
41. Investments from the oil-rich states would be largely in property development. If we succeed in training our workforce we may continue to attract high-tech industries.
42. Of course the impact on Malaysia of current global economic changes would depend much on how we adjust to them and how we manage them.
TDM's Speech: Approaching 2020 – Major Trends that will Impact Malaysian Business
Speech by
Tun Dr Mahathir bin Mohamad
at the Perdana Leadership Foundation Forum
at Sime Darby Convention Centre
on 8 August, 2008
——————–
Approaching 2020 – Major Trends that will Impact Malaysian Business
1. 2020 is only 12 years away – not a very long period of time. So it should not be too difficult to predict what would happen on the way, and when we reach there.
2. Trends are things that you can observe happening now but can be expected to progress into the future. By extrapolation one should be able to predict fairly accurately the changes that trends would have on things, on peace and war, on fashion, on morality, on politics and on business.
3. Unfortunately trends can take a sudden turn, even a 180 degree turn. Then all your predictions or projections can become so much nonsense.
4. I have seen things change so radically in this country that all my expectations have proven to be wrong. Trends also do not move in a straight line. There can be any number of twists and turns that what happens in the end would be very far from what you expect or predict would happen.
5. But we can to a certain degree be fairly sure that certain things would happen. Malaysia has, for example a high rate of population growth – some 2.1 per cent or 21 per thousand heads of population per annum. Based on this and our knowledge that presently our population is 27 million. By 2020 our population should be around 35 million.
6. Population growth is a trend that we can take into account its effects. There would be a bigger market even if per capita does not increase. But the likelihood is that per capita and GDP would increase in tandem. We have seen this in Malaysia’s growth in the past.
7. We are therefore going to have a fair sized consumer market. Shopping complexes would have to be increased in number and upgraded. Already our shopping complexes are of the same standard as in developed countries. But we would need to upgrade them.
8. A mass consumer market will make local manufacturing more viable. And there are many things that we can produce. Like Korea and Taiwan we would learn to design and manufacture many things not just for our markets but for export as well.
9. Against this, expect increased and less restricted imports. We must be more competitive. We must develop skills in hi-tech products and we must pay higher wages. The days of low labour costs would have been over before 2020.
10. Our workers must be highly qualified and be trained in higher skills. The workers we would need must be able to handle and service automatic machines, not just assemble things. We will learn to design and produce some of these machines.
11. Training of the workers must be done at specialised training centres. Computer programmes will be needed to do this.
12. What all these means is the business of specialised education and training would become big business. The training centres would also cater for foreign students if we use English as a teaching medium.
13. Malaysia cannot any longer offer itself as a cheap labour country. But the chances are our highly trained workers would still cost less than similarly trained workers in the developed countries. This may mean a shifting of some middle range hi-tech industries to Malaysia.
14. Our advantage today is still the ability to take instructions in simple English. But there will be a spread of English language capabilities in China, Vietnam and other competitors of ours.
15. Accordingly our advantages seem likely to be eroded not only because others are acquiring working knowledge of English but we ourselves would probably downgrade learning of English.
16. I hope that the teaching of science and mathematics in English would continue. But I am not sure. If the decision is made not to, then the hi-tech industries are going to bypass us.
17. Long ago we decided that agriculture would not be able to create the number of jobs for our growing population. Agriculture is good in terms of food security. But for this we would have to go into hydroponics, fish farming etc if we want to be self-sufficient. Such modern agriculture would depend less on labour than on technology. The result could be more unemployment.
18. When we decided to build KLIA, we looked at the demand in a hundred years’ time. Getting a piece of land near the city for a large enough airport capable of future expansion is not easy. When we built Subang we projected 400,000 passengers per annum. But by 1990 it was handling 11.0 million passengers. There was no way we could expand there. We started looking around but we were handling 18.0 million passengers before we found a suitable piece of land.
19. We never wanted to make the same mistake again, not with airports nor with other infrastructure.
20. Malaysia has the best system of expressways and roads in south East Asia. But still they are clogged. We need to build more and more.
21. I think we need to change our approach. Instead of building roads we should improve mass public transportation. It is unfortunate that the government decided not to implement the project for double-tracking and electrification of the north-south railways. Had this been implemented we can take off much of the heavy traffic from the highways and there would be less cars clogging the roads as more people travel on medium speed express trains. Now the government may be forced to reconsider this railway project but the cost would be more than double. The longer we delay the higher the cost. Worse still the greater would be the need.
22. We are putting some half a million motor vehicles on the road every year. The decisions to reduce the price of cars lead to more vehicles clogging the roads, stuck in traffic jams and going nowhere.
23. Building more roads is not the answer. We should see more railway lines.
24. Business depends a lot on ground transportation. Road transport will become more and more costly as the price of oil will never go back to the old levels.
25. Look at it in whatever way, the answer would still be improved and more extensive network of railway lines. Presently our railway lines run north / south. We need to have more east / west lines also.
26. We have been able to enjoy cheap oil because we have a relatively small population to match our small production. By 2013-2015 we would be producing as much oil as we consume. There would be no excess oil for export at world prices. so there will not be oil export earnings to subsidise local consumption.
27. We can continue to sell at low prices but Petronas will have to bear the losses as it does now with gas. The other oil companies would need to be compensated if they are forced to sell at low prices. But there would be no revenue from oil exports to pay to the foreign companies. After 2015 production in the country will be less than consumption. Then we will have to import oil at world prices. Again oil prices must creep up steadily.
28. Petronas has gone abroad to produce oil and gas. Costs of investment for these have shot up threefold. If government takes over all the profits from Petronas to subsidise oil and pay for development. It will not be able to invest in exploration and production abroad. This would be disastrous for Petronas and for the country.
29. Tourism. It is estimated that by 2020, 200.0 million Chinese will be going abroad.
30. India would be another source for tourists. Also in large numbers.
31. We have some problems with tourists from these two countries disappearing. But if the government will not be nasty, the tour operators, hoteliers and other service industries should see a great deal of prosperity.
32. Provided that we handle tourists well we would be welcoming 35 million foreign tourists in 2020, one per head of population. Those in the business should prepare for the influx.
33. So far I have talked about the domestic and relatively controllable side of business and the economy. The foreign side will be more difficult to manage as we have little control over it.
34. After the hedge funds attacked the U.S. Dollar they have been forced to regularise their activities. But the current fall in the value of the US dollar is more due to the intemperate spending by the American government, although there is a currency trading element as well. Loose lending practices involving risky housing financing has created huge losses by banks, funds and institutions.
35. The United States is bankrupt. It has a debt of 14 trillion dollars and it consistently suffers from twin deficits in its balance of payment and government expenditure. The US dollar is backed by nothing, no gold, no foreign reserves. The only reason why it has not collapsed completely is because people still accept payment in US dollars, especially for oil. If the countries of the world cease to buy US bonds, stop paying for imports in US dollars, then the US will have no money to pay for its imports. The greenbacks would be just useless pieces of paper.
36. Unfortunately if the US Dollar has no value and its economy collapses, the repercussions will be felt by everyone, including Malaysia which carries 30% of its reserves in USD and sells 20 per cent of its products to the US. The resultant worldwide depression will be worse than in 1929-30. Everyone believes the United States would do something to save itself from bankruptcy. But do not rely on it too much. We have to think and act for ourselves. We need to prepare ourselves for a world in deep depression.
37. Today’s oil prices are far too high and will damage the economies of the poor as well as the rich.
38. Accompanying the rise in oil prices is the increase in the prices of raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminium and some rare minerals. This is due simply to increases in demand by two awakening giants; China and India. China’s and India’s per capita is lower than us at the moment. Imagine the purchasing power of their 2.3 billion people when their per capita doubles for example. They will suck in everything the world produces.
39. A frightening thing happened recently – the shortage of food grains. It had not happened for decades. But in future we can expect this to happen again and again.
40. Trying to tackle the increases in price one by one will not work. We may be able to handle oil prices through greater fuel efficiency but what about the other raw materials; what about food?
41. We believe in a free market; in supply and demand determining prices. But markets can be manipulated and shortages can be created. In fact today huge quantities of goods can be traded without the goods really existing. This was what happened when currency trading was allowed. The total trade in currency was very many times more than the total value of world trade. Similarly the total volume of oil traded would be more than the total amount of oil produced or consumed. Seems that the trade in nothing is worth more than the trade in something.
42. We have forgotten why we promoted free markets and free trade.
43. The systems we created were for our own good but they have now become the systems we must sustain even if they destroy us. Something is wrong here.
44. All systems and ideologies were good until rogues see ways to abuse them for their own benefit or profit. This is what we are seeing happening to the free market. It is being abused simply because governments have abdicated their responsibility to prevent crimes in business and punish rogue businessmen. If we are going to benefit from the free market and free trade, governments will have to go back to regulating them.
45. Then people will say that the market and trade would no longer be free. But actually despite trade being free, it is not really free. We still cannot trade in certain goods, arms and dangerous chemicals for example. We still have to fill forms and submit to examinations by a host of officials. We still have to pay tax or if not we have to prove that our goods are not taxable.
46. Anyone trying to import or export goods must be familiar with the formalities that must be gone through.
47. Clearly trade and markets are even now being regulated one way or another.
48. So what’s wrong with governments regulating trade and markets to make sure that the trade and the markets are real, not virtual?
49. What’s wrong with requiring everyone to declare correctly what they are trading in, with whom they are trading, whether they really have whatever it is that they want to buy or sell, and of course the accounts which everybody else have to declare. It is ridiculous and grossly unfair that currency trading which is capable of destroying whole nations is not transparent and submits their accounts to no one.
50. What’s wrong with insisting that virtual trading in virtual markets at ridiculous prices be disallowed, be made illegal?
51. What’s wrong with limiting the loans the traders take and ensuring that banks do not take risks beyond their capacities?
52. There are a host of other regulations which can be put in place to ensure that the free market is about trading and marketing real things in a well regulated manner. Deregulation may have merits but clearly the demerits are far greater.
53. As to currency, there should be new bretton-woods involving all the countries of the world. A new international financial regime should be put in place so that exchange rates cannot be manipulated and rogues stopped from creating virtual money to play around with.
54 In other words we need to bring order to the free market and free trade. If they look less free it does not matter. We must remember that the systems are devised for our good and not for us to be sacrificed to ensure the good of the systems.
55. But frankly I don’t think we can persuade the rich countries to agree to change or modify the present free market system. They would want their rogues to abuse the system and make huge profits stealing from the poor. But we should try.
56. In the meantime we should look into adjusting and managing a high-cost economic environment domestically.
57. There are in the world today high cost countries and low cost countries. Generally the developed countries are high cost countries. Still they are competitive and their standards of living are without exception higher than in low-cost countries.
58. If we care to remember, we must acknowledge that relative to the past, our own costs are much higher now. I remember the days in my boyhood when 1 sen could buy two items of spices. A plate of noodles (mee) would cost 5 sen.
59. Today we do not talk of sen anymore. We pay for everything in Ringgit and in multiples of Ringgit.
60. Yet we must know that despite this higher cost of goods and services our standard of living is far higher than in pre-war Malaya. Even in the early years of independence the prices of goods and services were much lower than now.
61. In 1967, 10 years after independence our population was 10.0 million. Today it is 27.0 million. The per capita in 1967 was 950 USD. Today it is 6,000 USD. Obviously our income growth is higher than population growth.
62. That is why, despite there being more of us, despite our higher cost of living, our standard of living has actually improved.
63. There is something to be learnt here. Can we speed up the process of increasing income, increasing our cost of production and yet remain competitive? I think we can.
64. We talk of the wage price spiral and we are afraid that this might happen to us if we raise wages. We fear that cost of production would increase as wages increase and we would not be competitive. We would not be able to attract investments whether from domestic sources or foreign. But let us work out the percentage that wages constitute in the total cost.
65. Supposing it is 20% of total costs. If you raise it by 25% it will increase your total cost by only 5%. You can do this once a year or every two years while improving your productivity by other means, by better machines or automation for example.
66. Think. Malaysian costs are already higher than 30 years ago, higher than those in other ASEAN countries except Singapore. Still we are attractive. One of the greatest assets we had was political stability and consistency in government policies. There were other things which made Malaysia attractive. If we improve on these assets, the increase in costs (not just of labour but transport and materials) will not make us any less attractive or our products less competitive.
67. We must also remember that the pressure of increasing prices will be felt by our competing neighbours as well. They too will have to increase their cost of production. So our cost will not be, comparatively speaking, so high as to make us totally uncompetitive.
68. But consider the effect of increased income all round. There will be more money to purchase goods and services. However unions must not increase their demands when wages are already being increased. Instead they should cooperate in improving productivity. In the end they will gain more.
69. I never liked the low wages paid our wage-earners. It restricts their purchase of goods and services. If their purchasing power is increased then retail businesses especially, would enjoy greater sale. More would be spent on leisure. Other businesses such as transportation would prosper. And government would earn more income also.
70. I don’t often admire Singapore or what it does. But when Singapore gained independence it carried out a programme of steadily increasing wages every year. Some businesses and industries left Singapore but the efficiency of Singapore’s authoritarian government retained many of the investors and industries. We sometimes wonder why investors go to Singapore when they could come to low-cost Malaysia. I think you know why.
71. I think we should systematically raise wages. If we manage wage increases carefully enough, the wage price spiral would not be too damaging. In time it would settle and we would adjust to a high cost environment while our living standards also improve. Even our poor people will be less poor.
72. When people generally earn more money, they spend more money and somebody will make a profit and the government will collect more taxes. The so-called mega projects contributed much towards the growth of Malaysia’s economy and increased living standards all round.
73. There is a lot of talk today about the increasing cost of doing business but no talk about managing and adjusting to a high cost economy. Certainly there is no talk about deliberately increasing and managing cost. Yet unconsciously this was what we have been doing all these years. And we have been successful at it. Otherwise with our higher cost we would be poorer than our low-cost competitors. But we know we are more prosperous than them.
74. The world trend today is towards higher cost of everything. Our cost must increase anyway.
75. We can just rise with the tide.
76. But since high cost goes with prosperity, why not rise above the tide by actually creating and managing a higher cost economy.
77. That way we can achieve our 2020 target.
Thank you.
Tun Dr Mahathir bin Mohamad
at the Perdana Leadership Foundation Forum
at Sime Darby Convention Centre
on 8 August, 2008
——————–
Approaching 2020 – Major Trends that will Impact Malaysian Business
1. 2020 is only 12 years away – not a very long period of time. So it should not be too difficult to predict what would happen on the way, and when we reach there.
2. Trends are things that you can observe happening now but can be expected to progress into the future. By extrapolation one should be able to predict fairly accurately the changes that trends would have on things, on peace and war, on fashion, on morality, on politics and on business.
3. Unfortunately trends can take a sudden turn, even a 180 degree turn. Then all your predictions or projections can become so much nonsense.
4. I have seen things change so radically in this country that all my expectations have proven to be wrong. Trends also do not move in a straight line. There can be any number of twists and turns that what happens in the end would be very far from what you expect or predict would happen.
5. But we can to a certain degree be fairly sure that certain things would happen. Malaysia has, for example a high rate of population growth – some 2.1 per cent or 21 per thousand heads of population per annum. Based on this and our knowledge that presently our population is 27 million. By 2020 our population should be around 35 million.
6. Population growth is a trend that we can take into account its effects. There would be a bigger market even if per capita does not increase. But the likelihood is that per capita and GDP would increase in tandem. We have seen this in Malaysia’s growth in the past.
7. We are therefore going to have a fair sized consumer market. Shopping complexes would have to be increased in number and upgraded. Already our shopping complexes are of the same standard as in developed countries. But we would need to upgrade them.
8. A mass consumer market will make local manufacturing more viable. And there are many things that we can produce. Like Korea and Taiwan we would learn to design and manufacture many things not just for our markets but for export as well.
9. Against this, expect increased and less restricted imports. We must be more competitive. We must develop skills in hi-tech products and we must pay higher wages. The days of low labour costs would have been over before 2020.
10. Our workers must be highly qualified and be trained in higher skills. The workers we would need must be able to handle and service automatic machines, not just assemble things. We will learn to design and produce some of these machines.
11. Training of the workers must be done at specialised training centres. Computer programmes will be needed to do this.
12. What all these means is the business of specialised education and training would become big business. The training centres would also cater for foreign students if we use English as a teaching medium.
13. Malaysia cannot any longer offer itself as a cheap labour country. But the chances are our highly trained workers would still cost less than similarly trained workers in the developed countries. This may mean a shifting of some middle range hi-tech industries to Malaysia.
14. Our advantage today is still the ability to take instructions in simple English. But there will be a spread of English language capabilities in China, Vietnam and other competitors of ours.
15. Accordingly our advantages seem likely to be eroded not only because others are acquiring working knowledge of English but we ourselves would probably downgrade learning of English.
16. I hope that the teaching of science and mathematics in English would continue. But I am not sure. If the decision is made not to, then the hi-tech industries are going to bypass us.
17. Long ago we decided that agriculture would not be able to create the number of jobs for our growing population. Agriculture is good in terms of food security. But for this we would have to go into hydroponics, fish farming etc if we want to be self-sufficient. Such modern agriculture would depend less on labour than on technology. The result could be more unemployment.
18. When we decided to build KLIA, we looked at the demand in a hundred years’ time. Getting a piece of land near the city for a large enough airport capable of future expansion is not easy. When we built Subang we projected 400,000 passengers per annum. But by 1990 it was handling 11.0 million passengers. There was no way we could expand there. We started looking around but we were handling 18.0 million passengers before we found a suitable piece of land.
19. We never wanted to make the same mistake again, not with airports nor with other infrastructure.
20. Malaysia has the best system of expressways and roads in south East Asia. But still they are clogged. We need to build more and more.
21. I think we need to change our approach. Instead of building roads we should improve mass public transportation. It is unfortunate that the government decided not to implement the project for double-tracking and electrification of the north-south railways. Had this been implemented we can take off much of the heavy traffic from the highways and there would be less cars clogging the roads as more people travel on medium speed express trains. Now the government may be forced to reconsider this railway project but the cost would be more than double. The longer we delay the higher the cost. Worse still the greater would be the need.
22. We are putting some half a million motor vehicles on the road every year. The decisions to reduce the price of cars lead to more vehicles clogging the roads, stuck in traffic jams and going nowhere.
23. Building more roads is not the answer. We should see more railway lines.
24. Business depends a lot on ground transportation. Road transport will become more and more costly as the price of oil will never go back to the old levels.
25. Look at it in whatever way, the answer would still be improved and more extensive network of railway lines. Presently our railway lines run north / south. We need to have more east / west lines also.
26. We have been able to enjoy cheap oil because we have a relatively small population to match our small production. By 2013-2015 we would be producing as much oil as we consume. There would be no excess oil for export at world prices. so there will not be oil export earnings to subsidise local consumption.
27. We can continue to sell at low prices but Petronas will have to bear the losses as it does now with gas. The other oil companies would need to be compensated if they are forced to sell at low prices. But there would be no revenue from oil exports to pay to the foreign companies. After 2015 production in the country will be less than consumption. Then we will have to import oil at world prices. Again oil prices must creep up steadily.
28. Petronas has gone abroad to produce oil and gas. Costs of investment for these have shot up threefold. If government takes over all the profits from Petronas to subsidise oil and pay for development. It will not be able to invest in exploration and production abroad. This would be disastrous for Petronas and for the country.
29. Tourism. It is estimated that by 2020, 200.0 million Chinese will be going abroad.
30. India would be another source for tourists. Also in large numbers.
31. We have some problems with tourists from these two countries disappearing. But if the government will not be nasty, the tour operators, hoteliers and other service industries should see a great deal of prosperity.
32. Provided that we handle tourists well we would be welcoming 35 million foreign tourists in 2020, one per head of population. Those in the business should prepare for the influx.
33. So far I have talked about the domestic and relatively controllable side of business and the economy. The foreign side will be more difficult to manage as we have little control over it.
34. After the hedge funds attacked the U.S. Dollar they have been forced to regularise their activities. But the current fall in the value of the US dollar is more due to the intemperate spending by the American government, although there is a currency trading element as well. Loose lending practices involving risky housing financing has created huge losses by banks, funds and institutions.
35. The United States is bankrupt. It has a debt of 14 trillion dollars and it consistently suffers from twin deficits in its balance of payment and government expenditure. The US dollar is backed by nothing, no gold, no foreign reserves. The only reason why it has not collapsed completely is because people still accept payment in US dollars, especially for oil. If the countries of the world cease to buy US bonds, stop paying for imports in US dollars, then the US will have no money to pay for its imports. The greenbacks would be just useless pieces of paper.
36. Unfortunately if the US Dollar has no value and its economy collapses, the repercussions will be felt by everyone, including Malaysia which carries 30% of its reserves in USD and sells 20 per cent of its products to the US. The resultant worldwide depression will be worse than in 1929-30. Everyone believes the United States would do something to save itself from bankruptcy. But do not rely on it too much. We have to think and act for ourselves. We need to prepare ourselves for a world in deep depression.
37. Today’s oil prices are far too high and will damage the economies of the poor as well as the rich.
38. Accompanying the rise in oil prices is the increase in the prices of raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminium and some rare minerals. This is due simply to increases in demand by two awakening giants; China and India. China’s and India’s per capita is lower than us at the moment. Imagine the purchasing power of their 2.3 billion people when their per capita doubles for example. They will suck in everything the world produces.
39. A frightening thing happened recently – the shortage of food grains. It had not happened for decades. But in future we can expect this to happen again and again.
40. Trying to tackle the increases in price one by one will not work. We may be able to handle oil prices through greater fuel efficiency but what about the other raw materials; what about food?
41. We believe in a free market; in supply and demand determining prices. But markets can be manipulated and shortages can be created. In fact today huge quantities of goods can be traded without the goods really existing. This was what happened when currency trading was allowed. The total trade in currency was very many times more than the total value of world trade. Similarly the total volume of oil traded would be more than the total amount of oil produced or consumed. Seems that the trade in nothing is worth more than the trade in something.
42. We have forgotten why we promoted free markets and free trade.
43. The systems we created were for our own good but they have now become the systems we must sustain even if they destroy us. Something is wrong here.
44. All systems and ideologies were good until rogues see ways to abuse them for their own benefit or profit. This is what we are seeing happening to the free market. It is being abused simply because governments have abdicated their responsibility to prevent crimes in business and punish rogue businessmen. If we are going to benefit from the free market and free trade, governments will have to go back to regulating them.
45. Then people will say that the market and trade would no longer be free. But actually despite trade being free, it is not really free. We still cannot trade in certain goods, arms and dangerous chemicals for example. We still have to fill forms and submit to examinations by a host of officials. We still have to pay tax or if not we have to prove that our goods are not taxable.
46. Anyone trying to import or export goods must be familiar with the formalities that must be gone through.
47. Clearly trade and markets are even now being regulated one way or another.
48. So what’s wrong with governments regulating trade and markets to make sure that the trade and the markets are real, not virtual?
49. What’s wrong with requiring everyone to declare correctly what they are trading in, with whom they are trading, whether they really have whatever it is that they want to buy or sell, and of course the accounts which everybody else have to declare. It is ridiculous and grossly unfair that currency trading which is capable of destroying whole nations is not transparent and submits their accounts to no one.
50. What’s wrong with insisting that virtual trading in virtual markets at ridiculous prices be disallowed, be made illegal?
51. What’s wrong with limiting the loans the traders take and ensuring that banks do not take risks beyond their capacities?
52. There are a host of other regulations which can be put in place to ensure that the free market is about trading and marketing real things in a well regulated manner. Deregulation may have merits but clearly the demerits are far greater.
53. As to currency, there should be new bretton-woods involving all the countries of the world. A new international financial regime should be put in place so that exchange rates cannot be manipulated and rogues stopped from creating virtual money to play around with.
54 In other words we need to bring order to the free market and free trade. If they look less free it does not matter. We must remember that the systems are devised for our good and not for us to be sacrificed to ensure the good of the systems.
55. But frankly I don’t think we can persuade the rich countries to agree to change or modify the present free market system. They would want their rogues to abuse the system and make huge profits stealing from the poor. But we should try.
56. In the meantime we should look into adjusting and managing a high-cost economic environment domestically.
57. There are in the world today high cost countries and low cost countries. Generally the developed countries are high cost countries. Still they are competitive and their standards of living are without exception higher than in low-cost countries.
58. If we care to remember, we must acknowledge that relative to the past, our own costs are much higher now. I remember the days in my boyhood when 1 sen could buy two items of spices. A plate of noodles (mee) would cost 5 sen.
59. Today we do not talk of sen anymore. We pay for everything in Ringgit and in multiples of Ringgit.
60. Yet we must know that despite this higher cost of goods and services our standard of living is far higher than in pre-war Malaya. Even in the early years of independence the prices of goods and services were much lower than now.
61. In 1967, 10 years after independence our population was 10.0 million. Today it is 27.0 million. The per capita in 1967 was 950 USD. Today it is 6,000 USD. Obviously our income growth is higher than population growth.
62. That is why, despite there being more of us, despite our higher cost of living, our standard of living has actually improved.
63. There is something to be learnt here. Can we speed up the process of increasing income, increasing our cost of production and yet remain competitive? I think we can.
64. We talk of the wage price spiral and we are afraid that this might happen to us if we raise wages. We fear that cost of production would increase as wages increase and we would not be competitive. We would not be able to attract investments whether from domestic sources or foreign. But let us work out the percentage that wages constitute in the total cost.
65. Supposing it is 20% of total costs. If you raise it by 25% it will increase your total cost by only 5%. You can do this once a year or every two years while improving your productivity by other means, by better machines or automation for example.
66. Think. Malaysian costs are already higher than 30 years ago, higher than those in other ASEAN countries except Singapore. Still we are attractive. One of the greatest assets we had was political stability and consistency in government policies. There were other things which made Malaysia attractive. If we improve on these assets, the increase in costs (not just of labour but transport and materials) will not make us any less attractive or our products less competitive.
67. We must also remember that the pressure of increasing prices will be felt by our competing neighbours as well. They too will have to increase their cost of production. So our cost will not be, comparatively speaking, so high as to make us totally uncompetitive.
68. But consider the effect of increased income all round. There will be more money to purchase goods and services. However unions must not increase their demands when wages are already being increased. Instead they should cooperate in improving productivity. In the end they will gain more.
69. I never liked the low wages paid our wage-earners. It restricts their purchase of goods and services. If their purchasing power is increased then retail businesses especially, would enjoy greater sale. More would be spent on leisure. Other businesses such as transportation would prosper. And government would earn more income also.
70. I don’t often admire Singapore or what it does. But when Singapore gained independence it carried out a programme of steadily increasing wages every year. Some businesses and industries left Singapore but the efficiency of Singapore’s authoritarian government retained many of the investors and industries. We sometimes wonder why investors go to Singapore when they could come to low-cost Malaysia. I think you know why.
71. I think we should systematically raise wages. If we manage wage increases carefully enough, the wage price spiral would not be too damaging. In time it would settle and we would adjust to a high cost environment while our living standards also improve. Even our poor people will be less poor.
72. When people generally earn more money, they spend more money and somebody will make a profit and the government will collect more taxes. The so-called mega projects contributed much towards the growth of Malaysia’s economy and increased living standards all round.
73. There is a lot of talk today about the increasing cost of doing business but no talk about managing and adjusting to a high cost economy. Certainly there is no talk about deliberately increasing and managing cost. Yet unconsciously this was what we have been doing all these years. And we have been successful at it. Otherwise with our higher cost we would be poorer than our low-cost competitors. But we know we are more prosperous than them.
74. The world trend today is towards higher cost of everything. Our cost must increase anyway.
75. We can just rise with the tide.
76. But since high cost goes with prosperity, why not rise above the tide by actually creating and managing a higher cost economy.
77. That way we can achieve our 2020 target.
Thank you.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Lantikan Menantu Bukan Kronisme
Malaymind terbaca tentang Nik Aziz di Mstar:
ULASAN: Yea right...
p/s: dah tengok kat Harakah, tapi tak ada pulak tulis? Itulah akhbar yang bebas, sebebas Utusan yang hanya report pro-kerajaan.
Jadi, apa perbezaan mereka? TIADA.
ULASAN: Yea right...
p/s: dah tengok kat Harakah, tapi tak ada pulak tulis? Itulah akhbar yang bebas, sebebas Utusan yang hanya report pro-kerajaan.
Jadi, apa perbezaan mereka? TIADA.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Yang mana pilihan anda?
Ada pelbagai versi kabinet bayangan di internet di kala ini. Yang mana mungkin menjadi pilihan anda? {Gambar dipetik dari web tranungkite dan a few other websites}
Setakat ni, ini adalah yang dibuat oleh penyokong PAS yang lebih moderate:
Yang ini memang versi penyokong PAS:
Dan ini mungkin dari Keadilan:
Dengan menyiarkan kabinet bayangan ini, Malaymind mungkin dituduh untuk melaga-lagakan DAP/PAS dan PKR.
Soalnya, kenapa penyokong PR perlu begitu sensitif dalam hal ini? Sepatutnya tak kisahlah sapa yang jadi PM ke TPM ke kan? Kita kan hanya nak menjatuhkan UMNO / BN.
Sudah lupakah?
Lagi best, memetik website Husin Lempoyang adalah gambar dibawah:
Alah, simple matter je ni. Lagipun masa tu industri tu dah jadi lebih moden dan bersih ape
Setakat ni, ini adalah yang dibuat oleh penyokong PAS yang lebih moderate:
Yang ini memang versi penyokong PAS:
Dan ini mungkin dari Keadilan:
Dengan menyiarkan kabinet bayangan ini, Malaymind mungkin dituduh untuk melaga-lagakan DAP/PAS dan PKR.
Soalnya, kenapa penyokong PR perlu begitu sensitif dalam hal ini? Sepatutnya tak kisahlah sapa yang jadi PM ke TPM ke kan? Kita kan hanya nak menjatuhkan UMNO / BN.
Sudah lupakah?
Lagi best, memetik website Husin Lempoyang adalah gambar dibawah:
Alah, simple matter je ni. Lagipun masa tu industri tu dah jadi lebih moden dan bersih ape